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California will fail to meet its ambitious mandates for combating climate change unless the state almost triples its rate of reducing greenhouse gases through 2030, according to a released today.

After dropping during the pandemic, California鈥檚 emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other climate-warming gases increased 3.4% in 2021, when the economy rebounded. The increase puts California further away from reaching its target mandated under state law: 鈥� a feat that will become more expensive and more difficult as time passes, the report鈥檚 authors told CalMatters.

鈥淭he fact that they need to increase the speed of reduction at about three times faster than they鈥檙e actually doing 鈥� that does not bode well,鈥� said Stafford Nichols, a researcher at , a Los Angeles-based economics research firm, and a co-author of the annual California Green Innovation Index released today.

鈥淎s we get closer to that 2030 goal, the fact that we鈥檙e further off just means that we have to decrease faster each year.鈥�

The state is even further away from meeting a more aggressive goal set by the Air Resources Board in . Under that plan, greenhouse gases must be cut 48% below 1990 levels by 2030. Gov. Gavin Newsom had urged the board to adopt the more difficult goal, calling the 鈥渕ost ambitious set of climate goals of any jurisdiction in the world.鈥�

David Clegern, an air board spokesman, said in an emailed statement to CalMatters that state officials are confident that California will hit its targets, including its

Clegern said the state is in the midst of updating its climate programs and strengthening regulations, which, he said, 鈥渢akes time鈥� because they have to 鈥渢ranslate into projects and action in the real world.鈥�

It is more important than ever to transition existing facilities, and build clean energy infrastructure,鈥� Clegern said. 鈥淭his decade is critical for implementation of the state鈥檚 plans and policies. 鈥� He added, 鈥渁s we have stated for more than 10 years, California鈥檚 climate plans will continue to adjust to what remains a developing threat.鈥�

Greenhouse gases are spewed by an array of sources, mostly from vehicles, industries and power plants that burn fossil fuels, but also from livestock, landfills and other sources.

The report, compiled by Beacon Economics and environmental nonprofit , analyzed state data and concluded that through 2030, California would have to cut all greenhouse gases by 4.4% every year, beginning back in 2022. (Only preliminary data is available for 2022.)

To put that challenge in perspective, the state has only achieved annual cuts of more than 4% twice over the last two decades, both during major recessions, in 2009 and 2020, according to Stephanie Leonard, director of research for Next 10. And from 2016 through 2021, the annual average reduction has been just 1.6%, according to the report.

Massive amounts of emissions 鈥� more than 100 million metric tons a year 鈥� will have to be eliminated for California to meet the mandate. The state couldn鈥檛 spew more than about 258 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in 2030, compared to 2021鈥檚 381 million, according to the report.

Liane Randolph, chair of the California Air Resources Board, told the state Legislature鈥檚 on Monday that there is little room for error in the years ahead.

鈥淭he challenge is that we need all of our programs to be effective and reduce emissions as laid out in the scoping plan,鈥� Randolph said. 鈥淲e need each program to perform as well as or better than identified in the scoping plan in order to achieve our goals.鈥�

Power plants and cement are major emitters

California already has made substantial progress cleaning up cars and trucks. It has the world鈥檚 strictest emissions controls on vehicles, including a regulation that phases out new sales of gasoline-powered cars by 2035. Last year, , though they slowed at year鈥檚 end.

But electricity generation was responsible for some of the biggest increases in emissions between 2020 and 2021, a 6.7% increase for imported electric power and 3.9% for in-state power, the report found.

That鈥檚 because California鈥檚 drought resulted in less hydroelectric power and more reliance on natural gas to avoid power shortages, according to Leonard. In 2020, the state in nearly two decades after record-breaking heat. Last year, the state along the Southern California coast to shore up California鈥檚 straining power grid.

Natural gas plants are the of greenhouse gases among California鈥檚 in-state producers of electricity. zero-carbon, all-renewable electricity by 2045 but it has : About came from natural gas in 2022.

The report also highlighted cement facilities, saying California has some of the planet鈥檚 most polluting cement plants. As more housing is built and more cement is produced, the authors recommended 鈥渦rgent action鈥� to cut those emissions.

California鈥檚 seven cement plants emit about , according to the air board, which has a working group aimed at decarbonizing the industry. Some factories are turning to low-carbon fuels, .

Carbon capture and storage technology also may be used at cement plants because they are so difficult to decarbonize. These facilities capture emissions from industrial plants, then inject them underground.

鈥淐alifornia鈥檚 cement plants are an example of the challenge. Our cement is more carbon-intensive because we have older plants,鈥� said Clegern of the air board.

Wildfires were another large emitter of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases in 2021.

On an optimistic note, the report acknowledged that California has some of the lowest per-capita emissions in the U.S., and is the third-most carbon-efficient state, following New York and Massachusetts. However, many of the easiest and least costly steps have already been implemented. So finding room for future reductions will be more challenging in coming years.

鈥淭he state has shown that it is possible to grow the economy, while lowering emissions,鈥� the California Green Innovation Index says. 鈥淚t will take more action, time and resources to further decarbonize the economy, but the last couple decades offer hope.鈥�

The new analysis is the most recent example of an outside entity warning that California鈥檚 climate goals face major hurdles. The state鈥檚 Legislative Analyst鈥檚 Office said last year that California targets.

Also, last month, the state鈥檚 advisory committee for its controversial cap and trade market that the state was not on track to meet 2030 targets. Cap and trade is the state鈥檚 market that allows companies to buy and trade credits for reducing greenhouse gases.

鈥淭oo often the fact of California鈥檚 historical accomplishments is cited as evidence that state policy is on track, when often the pace of change going forward falls well short of what is required to meet the state鈥檚 next climate targets,鈥� Danny Cullenward, an economist and vice chair of the Independent Emissions Market Advisory Committee told CalMatters.

鈥淯nfortunately,鈥� he said, 鈥渢he state is not on track for its 2030 climate target.鈥�

 is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.