Wildfires and climate change are locked in a vicious circle: Fires worsen climate change, and climate change worsens fires.
Scientists, including , have been increasingly sounding the alarm about this feedback loop, warning that fires don鈥檛 burn in isolation 鈥� they produce greenhouse gases that, in turn, create warmer and drier conditions that ignite more frequent and intense fires.
Last week, wildfire smoke prompted another round of unhealthy air quality in California. Fires in Oregon and Northern California sent smoke into Sacramento and the San Francisco Bay Area. And it鈥檚 a global nightmare: This summer, world temperatures hit an , the worst U.S. wildfire in devastated Maui, a deadly was declared Europe鈥檚 largest ever, and swaths of the Midwest and Northeast have been blanketed from Canada鈥檚 forest fires.
As California鈥檚 most intense wildfire months approach, the volume of greenhouse gases they emit is expected to grow.
A by Assemblymember , a Republican from Riverside, introduced this year would have required the state to count wildfire emissions in its efforts to reduce statewide greenhouse gases. But the bill didn鈥檛 get far: It was defeated in committee.
Here are answers to some of the key questions raised by the symbiotic relationship between wildfires and climate change:
What鈥檚 happening to carbon emissions as wildfires worsen?
Scientists around the world are trying to quantify just how much wildfires contribute to climate change.
Last year, California wildfires sent an estimated 9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, according to . That鈥檚 equivalent to the emissions of about 1.9 million cars in a year.
In 2020, California鈥檚 wildfires were its second-largest source of greenhouse gases, after transportation, according to a study published . The researchers from UCLA and the University of Chicago concluded that the 2020 wildfires increased overall emissions by about 30%.
When forests burn, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are released into the air. It鈥檚 considered part of a natural cycle, with plants absorbing and then releasing the chemicals into the air over time. But experts say the increasing frequency of fires might be .
Emissions this year from Canada鈥檚 forests have shattered records, according to the European Union鈥檚 Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. Last year, carbon dioxide from boreal forests 鈥� the world鈥檚 northernmost forests, which span vast swaths of Canada and Alaska 鈥� hit a record high, UC Irvine researchers reported in the journal .
鈥淲here does that carbon go? It goes up into the atmosphere, it circles all around the globe, it鈥檚 affecting all of us."CHAR MILLER, POMONA COLLEGE
Fires in these northern latitudes are of deep concern to researchers, as those forests historically were too cold to experience significant burns. They are incredibly dense, and emit methane from the permafrost that lies beneath them.
鈥淭hese are forests that haven鈥檛 burned, not just in decades but probably centuries,鈥� said Char Miller, an environmental professor at Pomona College in Claremont. 鈥淲here does that carbon go? It goes up into the atmosphere, it circles all around the globe, it鈥檚 affecting all of us. It鈥檚 both symbolic and I think really significant. The coldest part of the planet is also exploding in fire.鈥�
In addition, wildfires emit methane, which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, according to a .
Will wildfire smoke derail the state鈥檚 climate goals?
Researchers are increasingly calling attention to how forest fires might be eroding , with UCLA scientists describing the state鈥檚 efforts as 鈥渦p in smoke.鈥�
Michael Jerrett, a professor at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, said nearly two decades worth of emission reductions from power plants were threatened by the 2020 fires, which included some of California鈥檚 .
鈥淓ssentially, the positive impact of all that hard work over almost two decades is at risk of being swept aside by the smoke produced in a single year of record-breaking wildfires,鈥� Jerrett said in a statement.
say carbon emissions from wildfires are not much of a concern 鈥� that the carbon captured by trees, brush and grasses already existed in the atmosphere so its release during fires is part of a natural cycle. As a result, they say, those emissions shouldn鈥檛 be considered net contributors to climate change.
鈥淭hese are distractions from the real issue which is that we need to generate a lot more renewable energy to displace our use of fossil fuels,鈥� Anthony Wexler, director of the Air Quality Research Center at UC Davis, wrote to CalMatters in an email.
On the other hand, some experts say carbon is carbon 鈥� and that it all contributes to climate change. Jerrett and the other authors of the UCLA report wildfire emissions should be a bigger part of California鈥檚 climate policy.
For its part, the California Air Resources Board estimates emissions from wildfires, but it doesn鈥檛 count them against greenhouse gas targets for 2030. The targets are based only on gases produced by industries, energy, transportation .
Last year, Gov. Gavin Newsom a requirement that the state achieve net-zero emissions as quickly as possible, no later than 2045. That mandate means the state will have to ultimately consider the roles of natural and working lands, said David Clegern, an air board spokesman. However, some wildfires are 鈥減art of the natural cycle and should not count against targets,鈥� Clegern wrote in an email.
Clegern said 鈥渋t鈥檚 difficult to know鈥� how much carbon from wildfires 鈥渕ight reduce the effectiveness of the state鈥檚 climate programs.鈥�
鈥淭hat鈥檚 because to a certain extent wildfire smoke is part of a natural carbon cycle鈥e cannot yet draw a bright line to accurately measure that impact,鈥� he said.
Instead, he said scaling back fossil fuels has to be California鈥檚 priority.
鈥淐alifornia is working on reducing wildfire in an all-hands-on-deck manner, but we won鈥檛 really fix the problem until we quit pumping more fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere,鈥� Clegern said.
How does the state plan to deal with carbon from fires?
State officials say restoring the health of forests and taking steps to make sure they are more resilient to fires will result in fewer wildfires and fewer climate-changing emissions.
Air board models project that natural and working lands 鈥� forests, rangelands, urban green spaces, wetlands and farms 鈥� will be a net source of emissions through 2045, while at the same time these lands will experience a decrease in the trees, shrubbery, soil and other natural features that naturally sequester carbon.
That鈥檚 why the proper management of these undeveloped lands will be important in the coming two decades. More than half of California鈥檚 forestland is managed by the federal government, and the Newsom administration in 2021 that it was working with the Biden administration to better manage forests and build fire resilience.
鈥淭hese lands can be part of the climate solution, but we need to increase our efforts to reduce their emissions and improve their ability to store carbon into the future,鈥� Clegern said.
Burning forests might be complicating the state鈥檚 climate goals in other ways, too. California鈥檚 carbon offset market has been threatened by out-of-state wildfires, the online publication Grist reported, because the state awards to companies that maintain forests elsewhere to store carbon.
What about the impact on smog and soot?
Wildfire smoke is containing substances such as carbon monoxide and benzene, a carcinogen. Smoke鈥檚 tiny particles of soot are considered its most hazardous ingredient, since they can enter airways, lodge in lungs and trigger asthma or heart attacks. Local air quality districts regularly send out warnings in California when wildfires spread smoke, sometimes hundreds of miles from the fires.
Smoke may be negating some of California鈥檚 hard-fought . A last year by the Energy Policy Institute of Chicago found that some California counties were more polluted than they were in 1970. In 2020, more than half of California counties experienced their worst air pollution since 1998, according to the report.
California鈥檚 air quality agencies do not have to consider wildfire smoke when they outline plans to attain health standards for air pollutants, such as fine particles and ozone. That鈥檚 because fires are considered 鈥渆xceptional events鈥� under the federal Clean Air Act.
鈥淓ven though the frequency of wildfires is increasing, we have no reason to believe that (U.S.) EPA will change how wildfire emissions are treated under the exceptional events process,鈥� Clegern said.
Meanwhile, concern about the impact of smoke on communities is growing. Nitrogen oxides, which form smog, appear to be increasing in rural areas 鈥� largely due to wildfires, according to a .
鈥淚f you go to these remote forests 鈥� which are predominantly in the north and the Sierras in the south 鈥� what you find is that there鈥檚 this large increase,鈥� said study co-author , a UC Davis bio-micro-meteorologist.
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