Having been in the restaurant business for 25 years, Jeramie Mykisen, owner of The Noble Fox Restaurant and Brewery in Ashland, can often "feel the energy of the night" and whether it will translate into customers coming in for a bite.
"You can walk down the street and look around and get a good sense of, 'Is this going to happen tonight? Are we going to be busy?'" Mykisen said.
The Noble Fox opened in April, filling the space where Standing Stone Brewery used to be, before it closed in the waning months of the pandemic. The Oak Street location is the gastropub's second since Mykisen founded the first in his hometown of Silverton, Oregon in October 2021. He describes the interior of the Ashland restaurant as having an 鈥渦pscale industrial vibe鈥� complete with exposed elevated brewing tanks that they use to make nine beers. Customers can enjoy their meal on a spacious outdoor patio or play pinball and other games in the arcade room.
Following its Ashland grand opening, The Noble Fox was "overwhelmed" with customers, with nights where patrons were placed on a waitlist before dining, he said.
But now, "We're ... way off of our projections of what we thought we'd be doing for a restaurant this size," said Mykisen.
"There are days here in Ashland when ... we're all surprised," he said. "[We ask], 'What's happening with town?' You can walk around the corner and it feels like a ghost town."
Mykisen is one of several Ashland business owners who are concerned about the local restaurant industry. They point to decreased business, the closure of several longtime restaurants in town, and economic factors contributing to consumers' desire to eat out less.
"People are a little wary of spending money and going out to eat is a luxury," Mykisen said.
The National Restaurant Association reported that 63% of operators said their sales declined in July, the seventh consecutive month of net-negative sales, according to the most recent data available. Seventy-one percent of restaurant operators said they saw a customer decline, the sixteenth successive month of net decreases in such traffic. Restaurant operators鈥� outlook on customer sales and the economy has also 鈥渄eteriorated in recent months.鈥�
Greg Astley, director of government affairs for the Oregon Restaurant & Lodging Association, a not-for-profit trade organization, acknowledged it is "a difficult time, still, for restaurant owners" as they battle new economic challenges following the pandemic.
鈥楬eartbroken and a little lost鈥�
The Black Sheep Pub & Restaurant and Cucina Biazzi are two examples of longtime restaurants in Ashland that have closed in the last month.
The pub specializing in British cuisine shut its doors on Aug. 18. A post on the restaurant鈥檚 Facebook page bid farewell after 33 years of "good food, comradery, and a lovely pint or cuppa. All the songs sung and words spoken created a place Where You Belong."
The Black Sheep was considered an institution among Ashland restaurants and Clarinda Merripen, who co-owned The Black Sheep with her husband, Jon, for seven years, said in an interview that they found ways to 鈥渂uild community.鈥� Weekdays featured recurring events, like 鈥淕ame Knight,鈥� trivia and karaoke, while weekends included Celtic bands and open mic night for kids.
Merripen said she feels "heartbroken and a little lost" over the closure. She said the pub shut its doors due to challenges associated with the restaurant industry, the decline of Ashland's population and what she sees as burdensome city measures.
According to Merripen, the Black Sheep has no new owner yet but is looking for one.
A short walk up Main Street is Cucina Biazzi, an Italian restaurant nestled in a neighborhood that served customers for 20 years, before closing on Aug. 30.
"We couldn't have done it without all of your patronage," the restaurant鈥檚 chef Chandra Corwin wrote on social media without explaining the business's closure. She did not respond to a request for an interview.
Katharine Cato, director of Travel Ashland, a division of the Ashland Chamber of Commerce, has spoken to Merripen, Mykisen and Corwin about working in the restaurant industry. She believes different factors were behind the closure of each restaurant, and the developments do not signify "a domino effect" in the industry.
"We've heard from restaurants that are having a strong summer," Cato said, cautioning that not everyone working in restaurants sees the same business activity.
Despite some headwinds, Cato pointed to a few recent successes. The Winchester Inn was named the Best Bed and Breakfast in the 2024 USA TODAY 10 Best Readers' Choice Awards. Josh Dorcak, chef of M脛S Restaurant was nominated for a James Beard Award in 2023 and 2024.
Ashland has also seen a handful of new restaurants open including Coco Rico, Skout and Osteria la Briccola.
They're 鈥榚xhausted鈥�
Sandra Slattery, executive director of the Ashland Chamber of Commerce, said it's impossible to paint the state of the restaurant industry with a broad brush because some are faring better than others.
"You can't just say, 'all restaurants are struggling' or 'all restaurants are doing well.' It is very different depending on the restaurant," she said.
However, based on conversations the Chamber has had with restaurant owners, there seems to be agreement that "it's never been more challenging."
She cited the cost of food prices and labor, staffing challenges, and "exhaustion" among restaurant owners.
"It's a tough business," Slattery said, adding that it is not uncommon for restaurant owners to have a range of duties from cooking to dishwashing 鈥� all while raising a family.
The Restaurant & Lodging Association鈥檚 Astley echoed some of Slattery's comments, saying that restaurant owners, regardless of where they are in the state, face similar issues: inflation impacting food and fuel prices, increasing utility costs and staffing problems.
"A lot of this is universal," Astley said.
He said the mounting challenges mean that even prominent restaurants that have been around for decades have had to close their doors because owners are "quite frankly, exhausted."
Slattery said that for restaurant owners to be successful, they must manage their business costs while also adapting to market preferences, possibly changing their menu offerings.
Food and Beverage tax
Of all the factors stopping customers from eating out, the Black Sheep鈥檚 Merripen believes the biggest is Ashland鈥檚 Food and Beverage tax.
The 5% tax is imposed on all food and beverages sold by restaurants in the city. Exceptions include alcohol and food items including whole cakes, pies, and loaves of bread if they are not consumed at a restaurant.
Funds generated from the 2012 tax go to a fund for street maintenance and reconstruction (73%), city parks projects (25%) and the city鈥檚 general fund (2%).
鈥淭he City [of Ashland], the council and the staff, do not understand that having a 5% tax depresses the number of people who eat out,鈥� Merripen wrote in an email to JPR.
Ashland City Manager Sabrina Cotta said in a prepared statement that the tax 鈥渂enefit(s) the whole community, as well as visitors to our town.鈥�
City statistics show the tax has brought in $34 million since it was first passed. Cato pointed out that between April and June 2024 alone, the tax brought in over $844,000 鈥� a record in that time period for the tax. She said the record could be for several reasons, but nevertheless felt it was a positive development for Ashland鈥檚 economy.
鈥淭here is some serious strength of sales happening,鈥� Cato said.
Customers react
On Labor Day, Ashland showed signs of vibrancy. A band played oldies to the delight of onlookers in the downtown plaza. Across the street, people scanned the colorful menu of Louie's Restaurant & Bar while a band played next door at Oberon's Cocktail Bar & Restaurant.
That night, longtime Ashlander Jeanette McCartney was out with friends, who settled on Louie's for dinner.
"I've gone there for years 鈥� Louie's is a great place to go," she said.
McCartney, who has lived in Ashland for 32 years, said the city has a lot of restaurants. Still, she noted closures like Cucina Biazzi.
"It seems like it just started in the last few months," McCartney said. "Some of the people that own them are older and they don't have the energy to pursue it."
While McCartney said she supports Ashland's restaurants, eating out has become more expensive these days.
"Now that we've gotten through COVID-19, it costs a lot more everywhere," McCartney said. "It's like $16 for a dinner that used to be $12."
She is optimistic about Ashland's restaurant scene, saying she does not think more will close in the near future.
Rogue Valley resident Kathleen Fitzgerald, who calls Ashland her "go-to town," remembers when the city's most prominent restaurant draw was Louie's. Later on, The Black Sheep became another favorite.
"I'm supportive of the Ashland restaurant scene, of course. [I'm] so disappointed to lose The Black Sheep and some of the other old-timers," Fitzgerald said. "I'm hopeful for new businesses that will take over the spaces."
She attributes restaurant declines to inflation in food prices.
She eats with her family at Blue Toba, an Indonesian restaurant "as much as we can afford just to keep it open."
However, Fitzgerald warned that her support is waning.
"We have been willing to pay a little bit more, but we're backing off now because a little bit more is so much," she said.
Helping restaurants
Following the pandemic, the Ashland Chamber created a free program called "The Language of Business," a video series to help business owners manage finances. Topics covered include 鈥渨hat to know when accessing capital,鈥� 鈥減rotecting your business assets鈥� and 鈥渂uilding a team.鈥�
After completing the program, owners should understand "the true cost of their operations and whether they are making a profit ... so they can do a better job," Slattery said.
Aside from those resources, Chamber staffers regularly communicate with restaurant owners. The Chamber also includes local restaurant representation on its board of directors.
"We work to help [restaurants] and promote them so people know what an incredible restaurant community we have," Slattery said.
In a recent Facebook post, The Noble Fox鈥檚 Mykisen acknowledged "struggling" small businesses and told the community there are ways they can support them without spending a lot of money. His suggestions ranged from buying a gift card to checking out a new shop, even by just buying one item.
"It all helps!" Mykisen wrote.
Though relatively new to town, Mykisen said restaurant operators like him want to see Ashland businesses succeed.
"The last thing we want is any of them closing. We want every small business down here to thrive," Mykisen said. "We want people to believe in that and vote for those businesses with their dollars."
Cato said she is optimistic about the future of Ashland鈥檚 restaurant industry, noting it is already a draw for people, whether they鈥檙e residents or tourists.
鈥淐oming to Ashland 鈥� that experience we鈥檙e promoting 鈥� part of that is very well anchored in restaurants,鈥� she said.
When it comes to the local economy, Cato added, 鈥渢here鈥檚 inevitably going to be an ebb and flow to the restaurant industry.鈥�
