According to the National Interagency Fire Center鈥檚 , the potential for fire in California is normal, with some areas marked as below normal.
Craig Clements, director of the Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center at San Jose State, said that鈥檚 a big deal for California. In recent years, he鈥檚 often seen the state鈥檚 outlook in the red 鈥� meaning above normal risk for significant fires.
鈥淩ight now, we are one of the lowest acres burned for this time of year in the last 10 years or more because of the wet winter,鈥� said Clements. 鈥淢ost of the fires started, there鈥檚 been very small acreage burned, except for .鈥�
Last winter鈥檚 precipitation brought necessary moisture to a drought-stricken California. That moisture, after being soaked up by the soil and flammable biomass, like fallen forest trees, reduces the risk for massive wildfires.
Some researchers had speculated this moisture might cause a boom in vegetation growth, thereby creating more fuel for fire in the hot months. But Clements said measurements he鈥檚 done of new shrub growth at some of his field sites show that it鈥檚 not a big concern at the moment.
鈥淭he amount of mass that has increased because of the rainfall is not as big of a consideration as鈥� the fuel moisture content,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he wetter the fuels, the lower risk of ignition, so it鈥檚 been a positive thing for fire risk so far.鈥�
Helen Dahlke, a surface and groundwater expert with UC Davis, said most of the winter snowpack has melted. But she can say with certainty that it accomplished what many researchers hoped it would, in terms of fire and drought outlook.
鈥淥nly small portions in northern California, along the north coast, and in the Mojave Desert, still show indicators of drought,鈥� Dahlke said. 鈥淏ut the rest of the state, at least from a surface water perspective, looks like we have really replenished all of our surface water stores.鈥�
She said the rate of snowmelt wasn鈥檛 unusual, even with recent weeks of intense heat. However, California did see snowpack levels peak earlier than usual, which Dahlke said is a symptom of climate change.
While researchers can agree last winter鈥檚 precipitation was positive for California, it doesn鈥檛 mean the potential for big fires is completely gone. Clements said those big fires tend to appear in August. While the outlook for fire potential is currently lower for this month than it has been in recent years, he said day-to-day weather could impact the forecast.
鈥淚f we do get a big heatwave, a severe heatwave, that could change the fuels,鈥� he said.
But historically, Clements said wet winters are often followed by milder fire years. He compared this year to 2019; that year, sandwiched between two particularly intense fire years, was fairly uneventful in comparison.
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