The butterfly counters arrive at sunrise. It鈥檚 the best time to do their work, when it鈥檚 light enough to make out clustering monarchs in the trees of Pacific Grove鈥檚 Monarch Butterfly Sanctuary via binoculars, but still cool enough that they haven鈥檛 left their roost for the day.
It鈥檚 hard to spot monarchs amid the Monterey pine and eucalyptus right now. Their wings are closed, revealing a lackadaisical gray that blends them in seamlessly with the foliage, but Stephanie Turcotte says you can learn to spot them even in dim morning light.
Turcotte, the most experienced of the three butterfly counters who鈥檝e arrived today, has what she calls 鈥渕onarch eyes.鈥�
鈥淎 long-time monarch person in the area kind of coined it, and I love it because it鈥檚 true,鈥� Turcotte said. 鈥淓ventually, you can see them in the trees, even though people will come in here and swear there's nothing.鈥�
She鈥檚 been counting monarchs since she first moved to Pacific Grove in 2012. By now, she knows what to look for: sometimes, they鈥檙e clinging to lichen and each other in what looks like a delicate rope, which the counters call 鈥渃handeliers,鈥� or clustered-up in the shape of a ball.
Then there are 鈥渇lyers,鈥� single butterflies that flit off on their own, or 鈥済rounders,鈥� lone butterflies who鈥檝e, for whatever reason, found themselves resting on the soil rather than in the trees.
It鈥檚 fast work. On this early morning in late January, the three counters are in a race against the rising sun; once temperatures warm past fifty-five degrees, the butterflies will start to fly off in bursts, making them impossible to tally.
In order to speed their counting, they use a special method to estimate the number of butterflies clustering, which allows them to finish in time.
鈥淧eople say 鈥極h, it鈥檚 like guessing jelly beans in a jar.鈥� Well, it鈥檚 not exactly like that,鈥� Turcotte said.
They account for the density of the clusters, keeping track of them before they move 鈥� unlike jelly beans. 鈥淎ll of a sudden, your 鈥榡elly beans鈥� are flying away and your count is null and void.鈥�
It鈥檚 a relief for the counters that they鈥檙e tallying up butterflies at all. Last year, in this same area, there were none.
The state of the sanctuary mirrors overall trends for the insect. Monarch butterflies have been on the decline for years, and in the winter of 2020 fewer than 2,000 were observed across the West Coast. Although the cause remains unclear, researchers have looked to climate change as one potential reason this insect population has hit turbulence.
But this year was different. A boom of monarch butterflies flooded California鈥檚 seaside towns, with , according to the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation.
All along the coast, volunteers like Turcotte work tirelessly to tally the number of monarch butterflies in this year鈥檚 migration. Sarina Jepsen, director of the endangered species program for the Xerces Society, says that these efforts are hugely important to research.
鈥淚t has just been essential to our understanding of how monarch butterflies are doing in the western U.S.,鈥� Jepsen said. 鈥淭he whole community, the Fish and Wildlife Service, the state 鈥� everyone's understanding comes from the work of these volunteers.鈥�
The reason for this year鈥檚 boom remains unclear, but Jepsen says that what is certain is the need for more information about monarchs. Understanding them could help in preserving their health and habitat 鈥� and, potentially, be key to saving them.
鈥楴o recovery yet, but it鈥檚 very hopeful鈥�
Even as numbers of monarch butterflies have risen, Jepsen says that they鈥檙e nowhere near the numbers seen migrating in the 1980s. Back then, monarchs easily numbered in the millions.
鈥淪o it certainly is a surprise and exciting news,鈥� she said of the boom this year. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not recovery yet, but it's a very hopeful sign and to me, it says we have a little bit more time to work on recovering the monarch population.鈥�
There鈥檚 no straight answer for their decline. Jepsen says that, although monarchs are among the most well-studied insects in the United States, there鈥檚 still so much that鈥檚 unknown.
But among the possible reasons for those smaller numbers, Jepsen looks to changes in climate, varying from rising temperatures to the current drought.
She adds that it鈥檚 unclear whether this year鈥檚 boom will sustain. It鈥檚 not unusual for insect populations to ebb and flow, as they鈥檙e often sensitive to even slight changes in their natural surroundings.
鈥淚 think that this was most likely a result of just having the right climate last year during the monarch butterflies breeding season to produce a big population,鈥� she said.
For butterfly enthusiasts, the monarch鈥檚 鈥渙verwintering鈥� period 鈥� when they settle in parts of the coast from October to mid-February to wait out the coldest part of the year 鈥� is the best time to see them up close in large groups. Butterflies can鈥檛 move in extreme cold and form clusters to keep each other safe, as they do at the Pacific Grove sanctuary.
As winter comes to an end and temperatures rise, monarchs typically begin breeding and move inland to lay their eggs and search for milkweed. But in recent years, Jepsen says there鈥檚 been anecdotal evidence that they鈥檙e leaving earlier than they have in the past, perhaps due to warming temperatures.
Turcotte says that if they leave too soon, this could be detrimental.
鈥淭he milkweed won't be available for them, but they don't know that,鈥� she said. 鈥淚f they start going east of us, they could end up hitting a cold snap and freezing, or the milkweed won't be there in order for the females to lay their eggs.鈥�
She says that this was an issue in previous seasons, and part of why overwintering populations are down in numbers.
Science powered by community
It takes about two hours for the three counters to tally the monarchs at Pacific Grove. They tackle the areas where the sunlight hits first, hoping to count the butterflies that are most likely to warm up and fly off earlier than the others.
On this particular morning, the counters finish and estimate that there are about 7,726 butterflies. It鈥檚 past peak season 鈥� in December, there were over 14,000 resting in the sanctuary 鈥� but this number still buoys the three counters鈥� spirits.
Liese Murphree, director of outreach and education for the Pacific Grove Museum of Natural History, is one of today鈥檚 volunteers. While these counts require some training, which the museum itself offers, she says it鈥檚 not unusual for community members to take up this work. She鈥檚 a soil scientist, but monarchs are definitely beyond her typical field of study.
鈥淵ou can imagine there's thousands of butterflies all over the state of California in some very remote sites, and scientists can't get to all of those sites,鈥� Murphree said. 鈥淪o they really count on community members to go out and count butterflies.鈥�
Kat Morgan, the third counter, is a longtime nonprofit professional who learned how to participate in these counts through a training offered by the museum.
This opportunity excited her, especially as it was one that she could participate in as a non-scientist.
鈥淭here are places where there aren't staff to do this, so it's all volunteers and it really inspires me,鈥� Morgan said.
The work of tracking them doesn鈥檛 stop in February. Jepsen says that anyone can report patches of milkweed and sightings of monarchs to the . This allows researchers to get an idea as to where and when monarch butterflies are breeding across the West, which also allows them to better preserve those areas.
鈥淎fter they leave overwintering sites, it's actually still a really important time to monitor monarchs, to look for them, to take pictures of them at all life stages,鈥� Jepsen said. In months to come, she said that they鈥檒l generally scatter inland.
Over the years, Turcotte has made it her mission to push this goal forward, often educating others in Pacific Grove about this work. Outside of the counts, she leads groups through the sanctuary to share what she鈥檚 learned, and has even written a children鈥檚 book, "The Perfect Place," about their migration. She also keeps connected to butterfly counters across the country, sharing her knowledge and soaking it all in.
鈥淚鈥檓 learning every season,鈥� she said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 this continual process.鈥�
It didn鈥檛 begin this way. When she moved to Pacific Grove years ago, she wasn鈥檛 aware of its history. She鈥檇 lived most of her life not knowing that monarchs were overwintering in California at all.
鈥淚 had never even heard about it until I moved here to Pacific Grove and then found out, 鈥極h, this is like Butterfly Town USA and we have monarchs that overwinter in thousands, right?鈥欌�� Turcotte said. 鈥淚t's a phenomenon, it's incredible.鈥�
Turcotte lives a short walk from the sanctuary and often visits on her own to check-up on the monarchs. Some of this is for analysis, like when she鈥檚 watching for pairs of monarchs chasing each other in zig-zags through the air, a part of their mating ritual that usually comes shortly before they leave.
But she also comes just for the experience of witnessing. Being among the butterflies in this small part of the year, especially after a year without them, is a part of her life she鈥檚 come to hold close.
鈥淵ou have this insect, right, that weighs less than a paperclip that makes this migration 鈥� it just makes me want to cry,鈥� she said. 鈥淎nywhere in that journey, they could die, because they don鈥檛 have the energy 鈥� and this year, we could have thousands that survive. It鈥檚 amazing.鈥�
Reports of milkweed or monarch butterfly sightings can be via the Western Monarch Milkweed Mapper.
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