Former President Donald Trump won a second term after four years out of the White House, likely thrusting California back into leading the resistance against him.
The Associated Press at 3 a.m., declaring that the Republican defeated Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, who would have become the first woman president and the most powerful Californian in four decades.
Instead, Californians now face a repeat of Trump鈥檚 first term from 2017 to 2021 鈥� another four years of governance consumed by combative showdowns between the state鈥檚 Democratic leadership and Washington, D.C., possibly distracting from or even setting back progress on addressing California鈥檚 own problems.
Though many were rooting for a Harris victory 鈥� which could have taken California鈥檚 priorities nationwide and brought additional resources home 鈥� state officials, industry leaders and activists prepared for this outcome. Trump, after all, routinely in his campaign.
Across state government, officials have been gaming out a response to 鈥淭rump-proof鈥� California. Gov. Gavin Newsom and his budget team are developing a after the former president repeatedly threatened to for wildfire recovery from California because of its water policy.
鈥淭he best way to protect California, its values, the rights of our people, is to be prepared, so we won鈥檛 be flat-footed,鈥� said Attorney General Rob Bonta, whose team has been working with advocacy organizations and attorneys general in other states on how they would answer another Trump administration. 鈥淲e will fight as we did in the past if that scenario unfolds.鈥�
During Trump鈥檚 first term, California over his rules and regulatory rollbacks. Bonta said his team has preemptively written briefs and tested arguments to challenge many of the policies they expect the former president to pursue over the next four years: passing a national abortion ban and ; revoking California鈥檚 waiver to regulate its own automobile tailpipe emissions and overruling its commitment to ; ending protections for immigrants brought to the country illegally as children; undermining the state鈥檚 , including for assault weapons, 3D-printed firearms and ghost guns; implementing voter identification requirements; and attacking civil rights for transgender youth.
鈥淯nfortunately, it鈥檚 a long list,鈥� Bonta told CalMatters days before the election. 鈥淲e are and have been for months developing strategies for all of those things.鈥�
California takes on Trump
In many ways, California is more protected from swings in federal regulations than other states, because it has a robust regulatory framework of its own that often goes much further than the federal government.
Lorena Gonzalez, president of the California Labor Federation, said unions see an ongoing of the National Labor Relations Board as a much bigger threat than any actions Trump might take. California law is already stronger than federal law on minimum wage, overtime pay and wage theft protections.
鈥淗e can鈥檛 do anything through the Department of Labor that would undo that,鈥� she said.
But with Democrats in control of every state office and holding supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature, Trump鈥檚 victory could completely upend policymaking in California.
鈥淭he best way to protect California, its values, the rights of our people, is to be prepared, so we won鈥檛 be flat-footed.鈥�California Attorney General Rob Bonta
During Trump's first term, legislators focused on counteracting his federal agenda 鈥� . California鈥檚 governors in that period, Newsom and Jerry Brown, took executive actions to limit the fallout of his rollback of environmental regulations, including and negotiating with auto companies to .
Newsom鈥檚 office declined to discuss the stakes of the presidential election 鈥� although at a press conference last week, he said 鈥渘o state has more to lose or gain in this election鈥� than California. Nor did representatives make Senate President Pro Tem or Assembly Speaker , both Democrats who will shape the legislative agenda and state budget next year, available for interviews.
A return to open conflict is a worrisome prospect for the business community, which was often caught in the middle of federal and state rules during Trump鈥檚 first term 鈥� such as with a 2017 law that in workplace immigration raids.
鈥淗aving the state react, it sort of puts things in limbo,鈥� said Jennifer Barrera, president and CEO of the California Chamber of Commerce. 鈥淲hen the two aren鈥檛 aligned, it creates some problems for our members that operate on the national level.鈥�
How far will California go?
As Democrats look to protect California鈥檚 liberal values, there is concern they will resist Trump鈥檚 plans by going further in the opposite direction, in potentially counterproductive ways.
Federal regulations make only a marginal difference in the cost of housing in California, according to Dan Dunmoyer, president and CEO of the California Building Industry Association, but he fears the state鈥檚 response could unintentionally undermine its efforts to boost construction. In 2019, as the Trump administration , California adopted that developers complained made it more complicated and costly to get building permits.
鈥淭he anti-Trump factor is real,鈥� Dumoyer said. 鈥淚 expect that if Trump says the sky is blue, they鈥檒l say it鈥檚 black today.鈥�
Divided partisan control could also further gridlock Congress, setting up the nation鈥檚 largest state as the battleground for major policy fights, especially in areas that are not of interest to Trump.
Adam Kovacevich, founder and CEO of Chamber of Progress, a left-leaning tech industry association, said advocacy groups seeking more oversight of the industry have been very active in Washington, D.C., for the past four years and enjoyed a lot of success with the Biden administration. Under Trump, they will turn to California to lead the way on and children on social media, as well as enforcing antitrust law.
鈥淐ongress is an environment of legislative scarcity,鈥� he said. 鈥淐alifornia is an environment of legislative abundance.鈥�
Trump is also viewed by the tech industry as a wild card who might that he believes opposed him, Kovacevich said. Such a contentious relationship could hurt their profits 鈥� and then .
鈥淚t鈥檚 tech industry success that plays a huge role in funding the state鈥檚 social safety net,鈥� he said.
Immigrant community on the defensive
With Trump鈥檚 campaign heavily emphasizing tougher enforcement of the U.S.-Mexico border and , California鈥檚 large immigrant community 鈥� millions of whom are undocumented 鈥� has been plunged into an especially uncertain and terrifying moment.
As Newsom put it last week, 鈥渢he impacts from valley to valley, Silicon Valley to Central Valley, will be outsized鈥� 鈥� particularly if Trump also revives his , including by refugees, foreign workers and international students.
The California Immigrant Policy Center, an immigrant rights advocacy group, has already led 15 scenario-planning exercises with hundreds of people from organizations across the state to prepare. 鈥淲e know that the Trump administration is going to target California. They鈥檝e been targeting California throughout this election cycle,鈥� Masih Fouladi, executive director of the group, said. 鈥淲e need to do a lot in California to make sure that we are defending, protecting our communities.鈥�
Under Trump, Fouladi said, immigrant rights groups would lobby to make sure state and local resources are not used to detain and deport people and that non-citizen residents continue to have and other public services, which the state has significantly expanded over the past decade.
One likely priority is strengthening the California Values Act, the 2017 鈥渟anctuary state鈥� law that . After a contentious legislative battle, the version that passed was scaled back from what supporters originally envisioned, exempting people convicted of hundreds of more serious crimes from the protections and allowing state prison officials to continue handing over individuals facing deportation orders.
鈥淲hat we hope for is to address the rights of the immigrant community in a humane way,鈥� Fouladi said.
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