Oregon revenues have been so much higher than expected that nearly $1 billion could be heading back toward taxpayers thanks to the state鈥檚 unique 鈥渒icker鈥� law.
鈥淢ore resources today, means a greater kicker tomorrow,鈥� state economist Josh Lehner told lawmakers during a revenue forecast on Wednesday.
That doesn鈥檛 mean there aren鈥檛 plenty of economic uncertainties looming, Lehner warned. But Oregon鈥檚 unique kicker law dictates that when income tax payments are at least 2% higher than what state economists estimated and lawmakers budgeted for, the revenue has to be sent back to taxpayers.
This could be the state鈥檚 sixth consecutive kicker refund, sending $987 million back to lawmakers in 2026. That鈥檚 a rom even the most recent May forecast, which was closer to $582 million.
A separate kicker refund dealing with corporate taxes is set to send $883 million back to
At the same time, economists warned that the state is aware more layoffs are likely; particularly in industries Oregon is especially dependent on, including the footwear and apparel and semiconductor industries. . Those will tilt toward more middle and high-wage earners, Lehner said, noting that there has been talk of a 鈥渨hite-collar recession.鈥�
But those aren鈥檛 the only Oregon-specific industries taking a hit. Outside of the Portland-metro area, timber remains a key economic driver and several mills have also announced pending closures.
鈥淭hese are three things that are Oregon specialities and they are all down,鈥� Lehner told lawmakers.
that has burned more than a million and a half acres in the state so far. Eastern Oregon was particularly hard hit, and ranchers have warned that the economic losses to their own livelihoods and in the state will be felt for years. The state economist noted there were enough cattle killed and enough land scorched that it would be difficult to sustain the same amount of cattle into the coming years.
Several Democrats highlighted the takeaway that the state is expected to have steady growth in tax revenues. Gov. Tina Kotek called the revenue report encouraging, saying in a statement that the economy 鈥渃ontinues to be stable, with healthy workforce participation in key sectors.鈥�
Republicans were less optimistic and called for caution.
鈥淭his forecast is another clear warning that we must exercise fiscal restraint,鈥� Senate Republican Leader Daniel Bonham, R-The Dalles, said in a statement. 鈥淥regon families are already feeling the squeeze from high costs, and it鈥檚 imperative that we don鈥檛 add to their burden by overspending.鈥�
