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Will a new generation of Latino voters change California elections?

CalMatters senior editor David Lesher moderates a discussion with political consultant Mike Madrid (left) and Juli谩n Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation, at the CalMatters Ideas Festival at the Sheraton Grand Hotel in Sacramento on June 6, 2024.
Larry Valenzuela
/
CalMatters/CatchLight Local
CalMatters senior editor David Lesher moderates a discussion with political consultant Mike Madrid (left) and Juli谩n Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation, at the CalMatters Ideas Festival at the Sheraton Grand Hotel in Sacramento on June 6, 2024.

At the CalMatters Ideas Festival, two political experts debate the impact of young Latino voters driven more by economic concerns than immigration.

Juli谩n Castro was a student at Stanford University when California voters passed Proposition 187 鈥 a ballot initiative to deny undocumented immigrants social and health services 鈥 in 1994.

鈥淚 remember the ads they ran with the grainy footage that said 鈥楾hey keep coming,鈥欌 recalled the newly-named CEO of the Latino Community Foundation and former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development at a CalMatters Ideas Festival panel in Sacramento Thursday.

鈥淚t felt like a real affront to the Latino community.鈥

Widely seen as a turning point in California politics, the measure 鈥 endorsed by then-Republican-Gov. Pete Wilson and others 鈥 helped flip California blue.

Two decades later, could the number of young Latino voters again shake up the state鈥檚 political dynamics?

Nationwide, Latino voters are , and Democratic candidates鈥 margins of support among them over the past three presidential elections.

Mike Madrid, a longtime GOP strategist and expert on Latino voting trends, said the change signals an 鈥渆mergence鈥 of new voters, partly driven by the rise of young Latino voters primarily concerned with the economy instead of immigration.

鈥淭he ethnic identity and the race anchor that immigration served for the past 30 years is no longer working for the fastest growing segment of the Latino electorate,鈥 he said during the discussion, moderated by CalMatters senior editor .

Castro, a Democrat, said it鈥檚 not a given, arguing younger voters may take issue with Republican stances on abortion and LGBTQ issues. But Democrats may have problems courting those voters, too: Both Castro and Madrid criticized President Joe Biden鈥檚 decision this week to temporarily to asylum seekers 鈥 an action tried by former President Donald Trump.

鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a mistake,鈥 Castro said, contending some Democrats thought the response to the border crisis could help them in the November election. 鈥淒o I get the politics of that? Sure. I also believe that they were bullied into a corner (to do) that, so now you are having to scramble a few months before an election to address it.鈥

The November election is another symptom of the political polarization that has taken shape for decades, according to former U.S. Rep. Doug Ose, a Sacramento Republican, and Democrat Leon Panetta, former U.S. Secretary of Defense and former director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Voters must choose between Trump, the first former president in America to , and Biden, whose since 2021, Panetta noted.

The presidential debates 鈥 the first of which is scheduled for June 27 鈥 may be 鈥渃haotic鈥 and 鈥渆mbarrassing,鈥 Panetta and Ose agreed during an earlier discussion, moderated by CalMatters Editor-in-Chief Kristen Go.

鈥淭he problem today鈥 isn鈥檛 about governing. It鈥檚 about stopping the other side,鈥 Panetta said.

The solution, Ose said, is to elect 鈥減roblem-solvers,鈥 not 鈥渇lame-throwers.鈥 鈥淚t鈥檚 almost like we go to the people who are the loudest 鈥 as opposed to the most effective,鈥 he said.

 is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.