Two months ago polls suggested Gov. Gavin Newsom wouldn鈥檛 have to do much to persuade voters to pass his marquee mental health measure. His plan, a $6.4 billion bond that would pay for the construction of new treatment beds and housing, had support from about two-thirds of voters.
But now, with voters casting ballots and a more recent poll showing declining enthusiasm for his proposal, Newsom is barnstorming the state to talk up Proposition 1.
鈥淧olling on this has been overwhelmingly positive, but polls don鈥檛 vote, people vote,鈥� Newsom said Thursday during a get-out-the-vote rally in San Diego. 鈥淲e鈥檙e here to get people to the polls.鈥�
The rally with the union United Domestic Workers, Attorney General Rob Bonta and other elected Democrats was the first of four planned campaign events by Newsom leading up to Election Day on March 5. Other stops include Palm Springs, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Statewide, about just four days ahead of the election. Analysts say the trend indicates Tuesday will see the in recent state history.
Support for Prop. 1 dropped from 68% to 59% between December and February among likely voters, a nine-point difference, according to two polls published by the . Democrats and Independent voters were overwhelmingly supportive of the measure while most Republican voters indicated they would vote against it.
Anthony York, campaign manager for Yes on Prop. 1, asserted that the Public Policy Institute of California polls couldn鈥檛 be compared because ballot language was not available in December. The campaign鈥檚 internal polling numbers have remained steady, York said.
鈥淥ur numbers haven鈥檛 changed since we got the ballot language,鈥� York said. 鈥淲e knew this wouldn鈥檛 be a slam dunk measure. It鈥檚 a conservative electorate. That鈥檚 why the governor is out there raising awareness.鈥�
A pegged support for the measure at 50% to 34%. 鈥淭he fact that Yes side support stood at just 50% one week before the election adds a measure of uncertainty to its outcome as, historically, most undecided voters in the late stages of a bond campaign tend to vote No,鈥� institute director Mark DiCamillo wrote in an analysis of the poll results.
The measure needs a simple majority of the vote to pass.
to restructure and substance abuse treatment system. It includes the bond to build treatment facilities and and addiction challenges. It also would change a special wealth tax known as the Mental Health Services Act by requiring counties to spend 30% of that revenue on housing instead of on other services.
Gov. Gavin Newsom鈥檚 mental health policies
Newsom has pitched Prop. 1 to voters as a way to address the state鈥檚 and vastly increase capacity for acute mental health and drug treatment. His amassed a war chest of $14.4 million, gaining support from law enforcement unions, large health care organizations, big city mayors and the mental health advocacy organization NAMI California.
to make good on its promise of expanding community-based mental health treatment after closing nearly all state psychiatric hospitals in the 1960s. Prop. 1 is an opportunity for voters to rectify that failure, Newsom said.
Newsom has signed several laws during his tenure meant to address the mental health crisis playing out on California streets, including one last year .
鈥淧eople get it, and they want to get something done,鈥� Newsom said to a gathering of about 100 union workers and first responders. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 want to talk about this problem anymore. They want to see progress.鈥�
The Yes on Prop. 1 campaign estimates that 6,800 treatment slots and 4,350 housing units could be constructed with the money raised by the bond.
Prop. 1 opponents point to deficit
, disability advocates and current users of county mental health programs who fear budget cuts if the measure passes. They attribute the proposition鈥檚 decreased support in part to concerns over the state鈥檚 soaring deficit.
The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst鈥檚 Office projected in early February that the , $15 billion higher than last month鈥檚 projection.
A bond allows the state to borrow money and repay it over time. The Legislative Analyst鈥檚 Office estimates that Prop. 1 would cost the state $310 million annually over the next three decades, totalling $9.4 billion.
鈥淚nformed voters know that means now is a terrible time for Prop. 1,鈥� Paul Simmons, executive director of Californians Against Prop. 1, said in a recent campaign statement.
Newsom has previously disputed how severe the will be come June, when lawmakers are legally required to pass a budget. During Thursday鈥檚 rally, Newsom hinted his updated budget proposal would draw from the state鈥檚 reserves. In January, his administration estimated the state .
鈥淲e鈥檝e never had more reserves in our state鈥檚 history, so that issue will be resolved in a matter of months,鈥� Newsom said.
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