If the latest public polling is to be believed, Republican voters in California, like party faithful across the country, are favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in next year鈥檚 presidential primary.
But if the attendees at the latest California Republican Party convention 鈥� a gathering of the GOP鈥檚 most dedicated activists, volunteers and local officials that took place over the weekend in Sacramento 鈥� are anything to go by, former President Donald Trump is still unquestionably the man to beat as he seeks his party鈥檚 nomination for a third time.
鈥淣obody comes up to me and says, 鈥榃hat about DeSantis?鈥欌�� said Deborah Baber, a delegate from Ventura County, as she hawked MAGA Republican buttons outside a Saturday lunch banquet headlined by the new House Speaker (and Bakersfield鈥檚 favorite son) Kevin McCarthy, the weekend鈥檚 marquee event.
Clad in a stars-and-stripes 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� jumpsuit and flashing a red, white and blue rhinestone Trump purse, Barber鈥檚 unmissable display of support for the former president was a common motif at the convention. Trump鈥檚 name and slogan were everywhere to be seen, on signs and apparel and campaign paraphernalia; DeSantis, who it should be noted has that he is running for president, not so much.
Outside the entrance to the convention center downtown, in a light drizzle, Ed Malik stood beside a handwritten poster declaring that 鈥淭rump is the ONLY anti-war candidate鈥� and handing out a four-page packet warning that 鈥淩on 鈥楧eSanctimonious鈥� is not what his manufactured persona suggests he is.鈥�
Though not a delegate to the convention, Malik and a friend had driven up from Alameda County as volunteers for the , to shore up support for a man that they worried might get pushed aside by party insiders after his contentious loss in the 2020 presidential election.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a battleground,鈥� Malik said.
By the only real metric we have at this point, roughly a year before Californians weigh in with their primary ballots next March, that is certainly the case.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in late February that found DeSantis leading a list of 11 possible candidates among GOP voters in the state, with 37% support, ahead of Trump with 29%. That was a reversal from six months earlier, when Trump led DeSantis by nearly the same margin.
The that DeSantis regularly trades with California鈥檚 Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, over policy and hair care routines, has only solidified his standing among conservatives in the Golden State over the past year. He made a brief swing through Southern California last week, including a sold-out to promote his new book.
By more unscientific measures, however, it鈥檚 not even close 鈥� at least here among the most committed and hardcore Republicans in the state.
Take the grassroots straw poll that Orange County delegate Evelyn Nunez Jones and Los Angeles County delegate Rudy Melendez were organizing at the convention by handing out business cards with a QR code link to an online survey. Early results, with about 150 participants, showed Trump running away with three-quarters of the vote, they said, ahead of a field including DeSantis, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley (who is running for president) and former Congress Member Liz Cheney (who has not announced a campaign).
Or consider merchandise sales. Marty Miller鈥檚 鈥淢y Campaign Wear鈥� booth in the convention hall featured Trump 2024 flags and powder blue t-shirts with 鈥淒eSantisland鈥� written in the Disney script above a map of the United States 鈥� a nod to the Florida governor鈥檚 star-making 鈥� alongside 鈥淟et鈥檚 Go Brandon鈥� baseball caps and hot pink buttons proclaiming 鈥渉ot chicks vote Republican.鈥�
Miller estimated that Trump gear was outselling the DeSantis offerings 85% to 15%. He had loaded up on DeSantis items because his supplier, who is based in Florida, 鈥渢hought the DeSantis stuff would go really big out here. And it hasn鈥檛.鈥�
Among those shopping was Napa County Republican Party chair Doris Gentry, sporting a Trump lanyard for her convention credential and a sparkling American flag brooch. She remained loyal to the former president, she said, because 鈥渨e know what he did, so we know what he will do.鈥�
Like many other Trump supporters in attendance, she did not dislike DeSantis. But she urged him to hold off running for president and continue to build his power in Florida, which would make him an even more powerful contender four years from now.
鈥淲hen he went to the bathroom鈥� at the Reagan Library, she joked, 鈥淩eagan whispered, 鈥業t鈥檚 not your turn. Wait until 2028.鈥欌��
鈥淭hen in 2028,鈥� she added, 鈥渉e鈥檒l be jet fuel.鈥�
Heather Matsen, a volunteer for the Sacramento County GOP who was staffing a neighboring booth, agreed that Trump鈥檚 experience made him best suited to take on President Biden next year and then fix the direction of the country in a second term.
鈥淲e鈥檙e not going to have four years to find his footing,鈥� Matsen said. 鈥淗e learns from his mistakes. So where (the) house didn鈥檛 get cleaned before, he鈥檚 going to clean house right away.鈥�
Mingling with other delegates outside committee meetings, Mark Rizk of Los Angeles County was a rare DeSantis supporter. He had purchased a t-shirt (鈥淩on DeSantis For President: The Courage to be Free鈥�) earlier in the day, which he proudly pulled out his bag to show off.
DeSantis is 鈥渟omeone who has a lot of the same great ideas that Trump has, but not the baggage that he has,鈥� said Rizk, who began drifting away from the former president after the Jan. 6 鈥渇iasco鈥� where rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to help Trump overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Rizk said he has been making a strategic case to his fellow Republicans: that DeSantis would do better among independent voters, while nominating Trump again would only alienate them and hurt down-ballot GOP candidates in 2024. It did not seem to be resonating at the convention.
鈥淭hey have vested their heart in it. Their heart is so into Donald Trump,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e basically going to throw the party under the bus for his ego.鈥�
But there鈥檚 still a year 鈥� and a formal campaign鈥� left to change those hearts and minds. Rizk sees it in Biblical terms, with DeSantis as the Israelite leader Joshua.
鈥淢oses led the Israelites out of bondage in Egypt, but God anointed Joshua to lead the Israelites into the Promised Land,鈥� Rizk said. 鈥淗e will be our Joshua leading us into the Promised Land.鈥�
is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.