The last time California voters elected a Republican to statewide office, Gavin Newsom was the youthful mayor of San Francisco, Mark Zuckerberg had just opened up Facebook to non-college students and Donald Trump was a Democratic celebrity tycoon wrapping up the sixth season of 鈥淭he Apprentice.鈥�
That was 16 years ago.
Now Newsom is the silver-haired governor running for his second term, Zuckerberg is a election-shaping tech mogul pushing middle age and Trump 鈥� well, you know all about him.
A lot has changed about politics since 2006, but not the California Democratic Party鈥檚 undefeated record for statewide office.
Republicans and conservative independents are hoping that 2022 might finally be the year they break the winning streak. And they鈥檙e pinning their hopes on .
Now it鈥檚 just a matter of picking the right candidate for the job: A conservative without a party label? A self-described 鈥減ragmatic鈥� Republican? Or a GOP candidate from the party鈥檚 MAGA wing?
鈥淭he momentum is there,鈥� told CalMatters reporters and editors this week. The top-funded challenger to , she left the GOP in 2018 and will be listed on the ballot with 鈥渘o party preference.鈥�
鈥淧ublic safety will transcend politics,鈥� she said. 鈥淎nd this is the moment for that to happen.鈥�
It鈥檚 an optimistic line echoed by , a Los Angeles lawyer and former federal prosecutor. Hochman is a Republican, but one who has so far resisted and instead emphasizes his long and varied legal resume and his nonpartisan instincts.
Like Schubert, he predicts that, amid heightened public concern over safety, voters are 鈥済oing to look beyond the party.鈥�
Though Eric Early 鈥� who holds base-appealing views on 鈥渃ritical race theory,鈥� gun control and COVID vaccine requirements 鈥� acknowledges that running against an incumbent Democrat in California is 鈥渁lways tough,鈥� he is especially hopeful this year.
鈥淚f you鈥檙e going to take one statewide position, at one point in time in California, where a non-Democrat could win, it鈥檚 the attorney general position,鈥� said Early, a Los Angeles lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for attorney general in 2018 and for Congress in 2020.
Money, incumbency and voter registration statistics still favor Bonta to keep the job. But his opponents do have a few things going for them in 2022. There鈥檚 the high price of gas, rising inflation, the of Democratic President Joe Biden and the electoral truism that the first midterm election after a new president is elected is for the party in power. Just ask .
Those headwinds are blowing against all incumbent Democrats, but Bonta might be especially vulnerable. 鈥� and 鈥� are on the rise. Political discontent about law and order is beginning to express itself even in the liberal bastions such of San Francisco and Los Angeles, where District Attorneys and are facing possible recalls. Bonta, a nine-year state legislator from Alameda who was appointed to the position by Newsom in 2021, has never run for statewide office and may lack broad name recognition as a result.
Three ways to take on Bonta
Schubert, Hochman and Early represent different approaches on how to unseat a sitting Democrat in California.
Hochman鈥檚 theory of the case relies on the Republican Party鈥檚 known, if admittedly unpopular, brand in California, plus its credibility on law and order. 鈥淲hen voters are looking at the ballot, they鈥檙e going to see 鈥榩arty preference: Republican.鈥� And I believe when it comes to safety and security, that鈥檚 not a negative,鈥� he said.
So far, Hochman has also gone out of his way to skirt some of the controversies that might alienate otherwise left-leaning voters.
Early makes an even more confident argument about the GOP鈥檚 appeal this year. He predicts that concern about crime is not only going to persuade the state鈥檚 Democratic-inclined voters to overlook the party label for California attorney general, but also to embrace some of the party鈥檚 most conservative principles. 鈥淚 think being a Republican might actually help.鈥�
Neither Republican was particularly impressed with Schubert鈥檚 strategy of running with no party preference. 鈥淲hat does that actually stand for?鈥� Hochman asked in his interview with CalMatters reporters.
Early was more direct: 鈥淚ndependents always reserve their right to basically change positions back and forth鈥 don鈥檛 think that that鈥檚 fair to the voters, frankly.鈥�
But Schubert鈥檚 platform has been consistent so far. Her campaign platform may be every bit as 鈥渢ough on crime鈥� as Hochman鈥檚, if not more so. But steering clear of a party label, she is positioning herself as a professional prosecutor outside the partisan fray. Her campaign is also a test of whether right-of-center policies can fly in California if they鈥檙e severed from the unpopular partisan label that so often accompanies them.
Schubert isn鈥檛 the first former Republican to take a shot at statewide office as an independent. In 2014, Dan Schnur, after a long career working for Republicans including former Gov. Pete Wilson and the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, ran for secretary of state with 鈥渘o party preference.鈥� He won less than 10% of the vote.
Four years later, Steve Poizner, the former Republican insurance commissioner, ran for his old position 鈥� only without the 鈥淩鈥� next to his name. He fared quite a bit better, but despite spending more than $1.5 million of his own money, he lost to the current commissioner, Democrat Ricardo Lara.
Schnur, now a professor at USC鈥檚 Annenberg School of Communications, said he鈥檚 more optimistic about Schubert鈥檚 chances.
鈥淏efore I ran, smart people told me that an independent candidate would need two things to win a statewide race in California: An issue that people cared deeply about, and an office that they understood,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 had neither of those things. Steve Poizner had one. Schubert may have both.鈥�
Democratic political consultant Garry South, however, remains skeptical that anyone without a 鈥淒鈥� next to their name on the ballot has a realistic chance for statewide office.
He rattles off a few statistics: The last time a Republican was elected California attorney general was 1994. The only time a political independent made it to the November election under the top-two primary system was Poizner, a millionaire who used to hold the office he was seeking. The last time an appointed attorney general ran for election was Xavier Becerra in 2018 and the Democrat beat his Republican opponent, Steven Bailey, by 27 percentage points.
鈥淭here is just no recent history in California to suggest that a Republican can win statewide office and there is no history to suggest that an (independent) candidate has any kind of advantage,鈥� South said. 鈥淚 defy anyone to explain to me how Anne Marie Schubert escapes those bare-ass facts.鈥�
鈥業t鈥檚 still California鈥�
In a by UC Berkeley鈥檚 Institute of Governmental Studies, 23% of registered voters named crime and public safety as their top concern. That was the third most popular pick after the cost of housing and homelessness. But the partisan breakdown was telling: Crime was far and away the first choice among GOP voters, with 39% of registered Republicans calling it their top issue. Among Democrats, it came fifth, behind housing, homelessness, climate change and gas prices.
That partisan breakdown mirrors a February poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, which found that Republican likely voters were as Democrats to say crime, gangs and drugs should be the state government鈥檚 top priority.
But even if public safety does grow to become a more dominant and bipartisan concern, it鈥檚 not clear voters will take out their uncertainty on the incumbent California attorney general, said Dean Bonner, associate survey director at the institute.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 the first connection that needs to be made: This is an incumbent and this person鈥檚 job is attached to crime,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 do wonder if the average voter would make that connection.鈥�
Perhaps more importantly, there鈥檚 the underlying political math that has thwarted California Republicans for decades. At last count, and most of them 鈥� time and again 鈥� vote for the Democrat. That鈥檚 compared to 24% who are Republican. That creates a 鈥渞eal conundrum鈥� for right-of-center candidates who need both the GOP base and a majority of independents to overcome the power of the mostly unified Democratic voting bloc, said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant and vociferous critic of the GOP鈥檚 embrace of Donald Trump.
鈥淐an it be done? It absolutely can be done. Has it been done before? No,鈥� said Madrid. 鈥淏onta is particularly vulnerable at this point In time, but it鈥檚 still California.鈥�
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