Another week, a little closer to California鈥檚 independent redistricting commission finalizing new congressional and state legislative districts ahead of its Dec. 27 deadline.
The commission is trying, but struggling, to wrap up maps for 52 congressional districts. Its work is being especially closely watched this year because the state is losing one district due to slower population growth. Nationally, that will have an impact on whether Democrats retain their narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
That鈥檚 because in other states, Republican legislatures and governors are drawing districts that favor the GOP, including in states that added seats from the census. Among them is Texas, but the has that it says disenfranchise minorities.
Here鈥檚 how congressional redistricting is impacting partisan control in California, Texas and across the U.S:
California鈥檚 congressional maps
Commissioners had planned to finish up revisions to the congressional districts Monday night. Instead, they decided to keep working on them, while also reviewing state Senate districts.
鈥淚 had hoped that we would be able to land the plane,鈥� said , a San Bernardino County Democrat and international elections observer who is presiding over commission sessions this week. 鈥淲e were not in the end. We still have some outstanding issues.鈥�
One area of contention: To group 鈥渕ountain communities鈥� together, earlier versions of maps showed a district along the Eastern Sierra starting at the Oregon border and going all the way down to San Bernardino. In response to comments from the public, the commission split the district, but remains stuck on whether to put Mono, Inyo and Alpine counties with the Modesto area, or with Roseville.
Placing those counties with Roseville would have a domino effect on the Sacramento region. In the latest map, Sacramento and West Sacramento were not split among different districts.
One issue that has recurred throughout the mapping process: Having to weigh one request over another. And while public input is meant to guide the process, it鈥檚 often conflicting.
On Monday night, callers from 鈥� including the city鈥檚 mayor 鈥� voiced their discontent with the city being split among four districts.
Mayor Sam Liccardo said that doing so would undermine the city of San Jos茅鈥檚 diverse neighborhoods relative to richer and more influential suburbs.
鈥淪an Francisco and Oakland, the other two large cities in the Bay Area 鈥� both which are substantially smaller in population than San Jos茅 鈥� have proposed districts that will ensure their representatives in Congress will overwhelmingly represent their city,鈥� Liccardo wrote to the commission. 鈥淪an Joseans certainly deserve this much.鈥�
A much smaller community has come up time and time again during the congressional mapping: Old Fig Garden, in Fresno County.
While it has only , moving it makes the difference between increasing the Black voting age population in a Fresno-Tulare district, or increasing the Latino voting age population, with a minor decrease in Black voters.
The larger question, however, in the Central Valley is whether there are two strong Voting Rights Act districts 鈥� ones with a majority of non-white voters 鈥� or three weaker ones.
But while it can seem that communities may be pitted against each other, the commission also takes into account 鈥溾��,鈥� where different minority communities may vote similarly enough to be grouped together.
Responding to criticism of some odd pairings in Northern California, two commissioners said they were based on all the data and feedback.
鈥淚 always see it as an opportunity to get to know your neighbor,鈥� said , a Republican from Yolo County. 鈥淕et to know a new viewpoint and hopefully work together.鈥�
鈥淭here鈥檚 no way we can make it perfect,鈥� she added. 鈥淲e鈥檙e 14 people coming together and doing the best we can.鈥�
As goes California?
Prior to the independent commission in 2011, redistricting entailed a lot of over the boundaries. After a number of failed efforts, , by both parties to create a commission of some kind, voters created one in 2008, but just barely: , while 49% opposed it.
California is one of eight states where redistricting is fully done by an independent commission. In seven states, the new congressional districts are being drawn by Democratic-controlled Legislatures, while
That includes Texas, where the Republican legislature and governor have approved districts that in its U.S. House delegation after the 2022 election, with at least . Currently, Republicans hold .
Texas gained two seats in the 2020 Census, while . And while much of the Lone Star State鈥檚 population growth was driven by people of color, the maps , according to the Texas Tribune.
That鈥檚 led to at least the maps face, including the one from the Department of Justice. 鈥淚n enacting its 2021 Congressional and House plans, the State has again diluted the voting strength of minority Texans and continued its refusal to comply with the Voting Rights Act, absent intervention by the Attorney General or the federal courts,鈥� the .
The national outlook
Texas isn鈥檛 alone in using redistricting to adjust or maintain power dynamics. In , lawmakers are drawing congressional districts that likely mean .
In , where the Republican-controlled legislature draws the maps, the state鈥檚 Supreme Court delayed primary elections from March to May next year due to lawsuits challenging the new districts. The Democratic governor the maps 鈥� and the U.S. Supreme Court .
In California, should the preliminary maps stand, , according to one analysis, and six would be competitive. Several Democratic representatives are leaving office, which further opens the door to Republican gains.
鈥淚t鈥檚 too early to tell what鈥檚 going to happen in California, but I think based on past history, California鈥檚 commission is going to build a fair amount of competition in whatever map they pass,鈥� said Samuel Wang, director of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project.
Across the rest of the U.S., however, most .
That鈥檚 prompting criticism of the makeup of California鈥檚 commission: Requiring the same number of Democrats and Republicans on the panel is unrepresentative of the state, where Republicans are among registered voters, argue Democratic consultant Steven Maviglio and others.
To win final approval, a map must get a 鈥測es鈥� vote from 鈥� at least three of the five Democrats, three of the five Republicans and three of the four with no party affiliation. If no set of districts for Congress, state Assembly or state Senate gets the minimum number of votes, commissioners must keep debating until one does.
The independent commission 鈥渞educes California鈥檚 clout on the shaping of Congress. We are unilaterally disarmed,鈥� Maviglio said. 鈥淪tates with Republican majorities are doing their best to make sure Republicans control Congress.鈥�
Take Georgia, for example, where two competitive districts won narrowly by Democrats in 2020 were collapsed into one in suburban Atlanta, while in Utah, Democratic Salt Lake City was split up among four Republican districts, .
And while redistricting will help determine the balance of power in Congress, partisan gridlock will likely continue to block much significant legislation.
Wang noted as one example the , which requires a supermajority of 60 senators to cut off debate and vote.
鈥淪tep one is representation that reflects the wishes of voters, and I think California does a better job than almost any other state in doing that,鈥� Wang said. 鈥淏ut step two is those legislators being in a position of being productive in Washington. Going from voters鈥� wishes to a functioning government is complicated. There鈥檚 a couple of weak points.鈥�
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