Redistricting won鈥檛 change that California is a blue state. But it could decide just how blue it is.
For the second time, the once-in-a-decade process of drawing the state鈥檚 new congressional and legislative districts is in the hands of an independent commission 鈥� officially without concern about the impact on the partisan balance of power.
But in reality, party politics shadows the entire process 鈥� and the citizens commission is getting plenty of outside pressure as it on its preliminary maps and consider changes.
And how it draws the final districts will nonetheless impact partisan dynamics 鈥� including whether Democrats are able to keep the supermajority and retained in 2020.
Heading into the 2022 elections, Democrats have a stranglehold on power in California: and , plus 42 of 53 in the U.S. House.
While slightly more competitive, the preliminary districts aren鈥檛 likely to change those numbers much, according to one study. Democrats are likely to keep 40 of 52 House seats, 62 Assembly seats and 31 Senate seats, .
But those party breakdowns could shift in the final districts that the before adopting them just before Christmas.
Fredy Ceja, communications director for the commission, said that when seeking public comment, it didn鈥檛 ask for political affiliation. And he noted that the state constitution says that 鈥渄istricts may not be drawn for the purpose of favoring or discriminating against an incumbent, political candidate, or political party.鈥�
State Senate and Assembly
Democrats have a supermajority in the Legislature, and, under the draft maps, that doesn鈥檛 appear likely to change.
According to the PPIC analysis, which uses data from the nonpartisan , 14 Assembly seats and 11 Senate seats are likely to change party control at least once in the next decade 鈥� a slight increase from 12 and 9 with the current districts.
The commission 鈥� which is and state Senate districts the week of Dec. 14 鈥� does not take into account the current district lines, or where incumbents live. That鈥檚 why the draft maps place as many as 29 state Assembly members and 14 state senators .
Legislators would have to move to another district to avoid running against a fellow lawmaker, though enforcement of the law has been weakened. The final lines will also determine who can challenge incumbents and .
One factor that is already influencing the potential partisan breakdown: legislators who are leaving voluntarily. Democratic Assemblymember Ed Chau of Monterey Park in Los Angeles County, for example, was appointed Monday by Gov. Gavin Newsom to a judgeship. Chau represents the only Asian-majority legislative district in not just California, but the continental U.S., according to redistricting expert .
Also, Democratic Assemblymembers and and state Sen. are all eyeing U.S. House seats.
Even with some departures, however, Republicans have no realistic hope of winning a majority in the Legislature. But getting rid of the Democratic two-thirds supermajority 鈥� which or put constitutional amendments on the ballot without any Republican votes 鈥� is conceivably within reach.
If Republicans were able to flip at least in the state Senate, they would have more influence over taxes and policy choices.
Democratic leaders shied away from commenting on the potential impact of the new districts while the commission is still at work.
鈥淚n keeping with the distinct roles established by voters for the Legislature and the Citizens Redistricting Commission, we will not be able to provide comment on the draft maps,鈥� state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins of San Diego and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon of Lakewood said in a joint statement provided Tuesday to CalMatters by a spokesperson. 鈥淲hile the Citizens Redistricting Commission does its job, the Legislature will continue to do ours 鈥� building upon the historic and transformative accomplishments that we have made in this legislative session.鈥�
U.S. House
The competition and the stakes for California鈥檚 congressional seats could be a little higher.
According to the PPIC analysis of the preliminary maps, 13 U.S. House seats are likely to change party control at least once in the next decade, compared to 10 within the existing districts.
Nationwide, Republicans only in 2022 to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives. And they鈥檙e well on their way, just from the GOP-controlled redistricting already completed, according to analyses of new congressional districts by and .
That鈥檚 not by accident: In most other states, redistricting is done by state legislatures, most of which . That includes states that gained congressional seats after the 2020 Census, including and . (California , complicating the redistricting process.)
In states where legislators drew the lines, nearly 90% of congressional races over the last decade were easy wins for one party or the other, .
Jonathan Mehta Stein, executive director of California Common Cause, which has led the charge for independent redistricting commissions statewide and on the local level, that while the process has been 鈥渄isruptive,鈥� the alternative as seen in other states is a lot .
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