Gov. Gavin Newsom is running two races this spring: The first is to clobber the coronavirus pandemic that has killed nearly 60,000 Californians and devastated businesses and schools with unprecedented restrictions. The second is to keep his job, which could be threatened by a later this year.
The two paths intersected this week as Newsom announced plans to fully 鈥� if hospitalization rates remain low and the state has enough vaccines to inoculate all Californians who want a shot.
鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing death rates鈥� go down. We鈥檙e seeing case rates stabilize. We have the lowest case rates in the United States of America,鈥� Newsom said during a press conference in San Francisco. 鈥淥n June 15, all things being equal, if we continue that good work鈥� we鈥檒l be opening up this economy (for) business as usual.鈥�
At first blush, the political benefit seems obvious: The campaign attempting to throw Newsom out of office is fueled, in part, by anger over his decisions to close businesses, schools and churches amid the pandemic. His announcement that the state is planning to fully reopen could quell frustration and take some wind out of the recall campaign鈥檚 sails. The June 15 reopening happens to fall during a period when voters can remove their names from the recall petitions if they changed their minds.
But it鈥檚 not all upside. Newsom鈥檚 bold pronouncement about what he鈥檒l do two months down the line 鈥� while in other parts of the country, highly contagious coronavirus and the state says only 23% of Californians are 鈥� also comes with a dose of political danger.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a really risky decision, but with a high percentage of success,鈥� said Fernando Guerra, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.
鈥淭he risk is that the fourth wave may hit California, he鈥檚 going to have to backtrack, reinstitute some of the restrictions, and then it will reinforce the whole rationale for the recall.鈥�
The effort to oust the Democratic governor began before the year-long pandemic upended life in California. It was driven by conservative activists who oppose Newsom鈥檚 progressive stances on immigration, gun control and criminal justice. But the pandemic gave their campaign a massive shot of momentum, as many Californians got fed up with the state鈥檚 constantly shifting restrictions 鈥� and a judge ruled that recall supporters could have more time to gather signatures because of last year鈥檚 stay-at-home order.
So the course of the pandemic and the course of the recall have become intertwined, making it impossible to separate whether Newsom鈥檚 decisions about one are driven by the other. A found that 56% of Californians would vote against the recall 鈥� enough for Newsom to keep his job. But polls capture the mood at a specific moment in time and public opinion could change depending on how the state recovers from the pandemic.
鈥淵ou cannot help but see every decision that is made in the sense of the recall,鈥� Guerra said. 鈥淭he pandemic determines the fact that we have the recall, and how the recall is going to play out.鈥�
Though Newsom has been projecting optimism about the end of the pandemic for several weeks, today鈥檚 announcement was a big move that seemed to go beyond what he previously forecast. Last month, he鈥檇 speed up business reopenings 鈥� but didn鈥檛 promise a full-scale reopening 鈥� after 4 million vaccine doses had been administered in the state鈥檚 hardest-hit communities. The state hit that number today, he said, allowing him to set the June 15 goal.
Newsom said he鈥檚 monitoring the spread of variants, and that his decision to reopen is based on California鈥檚 low case rates and an expectation of sufficient supply of vaccines. A prominent Newsom鈥檚 plan is prudent, and the president of the California Chamber of Commerce said it 鈥渋s especially welcome news as we enter California鈥檚 peak tourism and recreation season.鈥�
But supporters of the recall campaign cast it as a purely political move that still falls short of what Californians need.
鈥淕avin Newsom is making a political football out of reopening California; don鈥檛 be surprised when he moves the goalposts,鈥� John Cox, the Republican businessman who lost to Newsom in 2018 and is running against him if the recall qualifies for the ballot.
Another GOP challenger, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, said in a statement that 鈥淣ewsom has shown that he鈥檚 only motivated by his own political survival, not doing what鈥檚 best for Californians.鈥�
鈥淚f he truly wanted to help families across this state, he would reopen all public schools for in-person learning now.鈥�
Even with the low rates of infection, California in the portion of kids who attend school in-person. And while many schools in the state have begun to reopen this spring, they鈥檙e generally on hybrid schedules that only allow kids on campus for a few hours a week 鈥� making it difficult for many parents to work.
鈥淭he economy cannot reopen without schools fully and safely reopening as well, otherwise working parents, especially working mothers, will be left behind,鈥� said a statement from Rob Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable, which represents the state鈥檚 largest companies.
鈥淭he schools must be a full partner in creating an equitable recovery and reopening, allowing all working families the opportunity to get back to work.鈥�
Newsom said it鈥檚 his 鈥渆xpectation鈥� that schools will fully reopen after June 15 and vowed that there will be 鈥渘o barrier to having our kids back in in-person instruction.鈥� But he did not commit to requiring that schools offer normal full-time schedules this fall 鈥� highlighting another political liability if the recall campaign is in full swing during back-to-school season and families are still scrambling to accommodate part-time class schedules and Zoom lessons from home.
CalMatters is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.