For the first time in two months, the presidential election is actually set.
There are sure to be lots more surprises 鈥� and nail biting 鈥� to come, though.
Here are five themes and questions to think about for this fall:
1. Don鈥檛 stress about the polls
This is the time of year when people who already know who they are going to vote for begin to get nervous and start becoming amateur horse-race poll watchers.
Stop it.
Survey research exists, and it鈥檚 largely pretty good. NPR keeps an eye on it and even conducts our own to get a better sense of how people are feeling about the candidates, policy, politics and society. But what all the polls show are two things:
- Vice President Harris is performing better than President Biden was just before he dropped out of the race. She鈥檚 gained on average anywhere from 4 to 6 points in swing-state polls, boosting her in the big seven swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (in the so-called Blue Wall), and has drawn support even in the Sun Belt states of North Carolina and Georgia in the East and Arizona and Nevada out West.
- The race is very close, and that鈥檚 not likely going to change.
That鈥檚 all, for now, that anyone needs to know about the candidates鈥� standing in the polls. No one knows exactly who is going to show up, the polls you see aren鈥檛 meant to be predictive, and they all have margins of error of about 3 to 4 points, meaning results could actually be about 3 or more points lower or higher.
That鈥檚 a 7-to-8-point potential swing in good surveys, so if things are this close, realize that the game isn鈥檛 played on your computer screen looking at polling aggregator sites or reading data geeks鈥� interpretations of the crosstabs. It鈥檚 about activism, mobilization, and, frankly, how Harris performs 鈥� because views of former President Donald Trump are pretty locked in.
2. Does Harris continue her momentum and hold steady, or does something change the dynamic?
The Democratic convention is over and, with it, Harris鈥� acceptance speech. That address is a pillar moment in any presidential campaign.
Harris then passed a key, basic test last Thursday with five weeks ago. So far, she鈥檚 had about as good a rollout as she could have hoped for. Until the interview with CNN鈥檚 Dana Bash, though, almost everything she had done was highly scripted.
Now that the introductory period is over, there is going to likely be increased scrutiny on Harris鈥� record and policy proposals. The next big test will be the Sept. 10 debate with Trump. Part of her task in the next two months is to keep her base intact and fired up 鈥� and to target the middle. So far, she鈥檚 done that.
Republicans have been critical of positions Harris has taken in this campaign that are at odds with her presidential campaign in 2019, when she was trying to win over progressives on things like fracking, immigration and more. She has to figure out the best ways to explain her change, which she started to do in her interview Thursday. We鈥檒l see how crisp she is in talking about them at the debate.
Will any of those attacks stick? That will be clearer a couple of weeks after the debate when views settle again. But they鈥檇 have a better chance of landing with voters if she weren鈥檛 running against Trump, who has been all over the map on multiple issues.
3. Who does best in the debate(s)?
The first debate will likely be a pretty big audience, likely one of the largest of the campaign, and perhaps very consequential. Consider that the debate between Trump and Biden effectively ended Biden鈥檚 candidacy for reelection.
While the debate brings increased scrutiny on Harris鈥� policy positions and her proposals, it also presents considerable risk to Trump.
Trump, in that first debate against Biden, meandered and told a . But Biden鈥檚 poor performance overshadowed all that, and Trump largely escaped scrutiny.
At Trump鈥檚 press conference in early August, , more than two a minute. Harris, on the other hand, that were either misleading or lacking in context.
If Harris has a solid debate, the focus could be on Trump in a way he doesn鈥檛 want.
4. Who has the better turnout operation?
The campaigns have spent more than $1 billion on ads already and have knocked on millions of doors to talk with people about who they might prefer and trying to convince them to vote for their candidate.
But now, after Labor Day, is when it becomes all about mobilization. Early voting begins in a few weeks, and the campaigns will be urging their most reliable voters to go vote early to bank their support. Then, they will shift to targeting their moderately reliable voters and ones maybe leaning in their direction to try to get them to cast their ballots up until Election Day.
Democrats feel like they have an advantage over the Trump team because some of the GOP turnout effort is being , a group with very limited experience or success in doing this. Turning Point鈥檚 tactics operatives irritated and nervous.
5. What issues motivate voters 鈥� or do they, at the end of the day?
Will views of the economy improve? Do abortion rights drive Democrats to the polls? Will immigration and crime break through for Republicans in the suburbs?
These are all valid and important questions, but some wonder how much policy will actually matter, considering this is a race involving Trump, who is such a polarizing figure.
As Biden likes to say, 鈥淒on鈥檛 compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.鈥� That鈥檚 certainly true in U.S. politics, which largely presents binary choices.
For as much as Trump ran as an outsider in the 2016 campaign, he鈥檚 now been on the political scene for almost a decade, and he鈥檚 78 years old.
This election will likely come down to this:
Whether Republicans are able to home in on their advantages on the economy and immigration, or whether Harris can fire up voters angry with Trump over abortion and democracy and truly grab the mantle of change, despite being a sitting vice president.
鈥淲hat we don't know about this election is whether any of these issues really matter,鈥� said Jamal Simmons, a Democratic strategist who worked in the White House for Harris for a year. 鈥淲hat might be true is that this is really an election about change versus more of the same. And if it's a change election, Harris is the candidate of change, and it's going to be hard to get people to move off of that.鈥�
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