California immigrant advocates and state officials are bracing for what they describe as the likely massive impact of a second Trump presidency on border policies 鈥� vowing to fight his plans in court even as they remain uncertain which will make it from the campaign trail to reality.
Trump has pledged to conduct the largest in U.S. history on Jan. 20 when he takes office; tariffs on Mexico if it doesn鈥檛 stop the northbound flow of migrants and fentanyl; and described as part of his crackdown, contemplating deploying the National Guard to aid in deportations if necessary.
鈥淲e鈥檙e going to have to seal up those borders, and we鈥檙e going to have to let people come into our country,鈥� said the president-elect during his acceptance remarks Tuesday. 鈥淲e want people to come back in, but we have to, we have to let them come back in, but they have to come in legally.鈥�
Lee Gelernt, an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union who argued challenges to immigration restrictions during Trump鈥檚 first term, said 鈥淢any of the policies Trump is advocating and promising, like use of the military, are illegal and we are prepared to challenge them.鈥� on Trump鈥檚 reelection described plans to push legislators to block deportations and make cuts to Immigration and Customs Enforcement鈥檚 detention operations. It also envisioned 鈥渁 civil rights firewall鈥� to protect immigrants and litigation against deportations.
Other organizations have promised to join the fight.
鈥淲e believe Trump when he promises to enact disastrous policies that aim to tear families apart, destabilize communities, and weaken our economy,鈥� said Lindsay Toczylowski, CEO and president of Los Angeles-based Immigrant Defenders Law Center.
鈥淏ut the U.S. Constitution didn鈥檛 disappear overnight. We will use all the tools we have to protect and defend the rights of all immigrants and ,鈥� she added.
Those planning to fight Trump鈥檚 border policy face the strategic challenge of not knowing if or when each of his myriad border-related proposals will be implemented or how feasible and legal they will turn out to be.
But immigrant advocates said the impact from his election will likely be massive. California is home to more immigrants than any other state in the nation,about 10.6 million people, as well as the most unauthorized immigrants, according to 2022 numbers . Immigrants make up more than a fourth of the state鈥檚 population, and nearly half of all children in California have at least one immigrant parent.
鈥淚f Donald Trump is successful with deportations, no state will be more impacted from a fiscal perspective, from an economic perspective,鈥� Gov. Gavin Newsom .
鈥淲e will use all the tools we have to protect and defend the rights of all immigrants and asylum seekers.鈥�Lindsay Toczylowski, CEO and president, Immigrant Defenders Law Center
State Attorney General Rob Bonta told CalMatters that his office is prepared to fight, spending the months leading up to the election developing legal strategies.
鈥淭he best way to protect California, its values, the rights of our people, is to be prepared so we won鈥檛 be flat-footed,鈥� Bonta said days before the election. Bonta鈥檚 comments indicate that the state, which sued more than 100 times over Trump鈥檚 policies in his first term, will again be a thorn in the president鈥檚 side.
Those waiting in Tijuana to cross legally into the United States through CBP One, the federal government鈥檚 phone app, worried on Wednesday that their opportunity to seek asylum had already slipped away.
鈥淪adness,鈥� is what Emir Mesa said she felt when she heard of Trump鈥檚 pending victory. The 45-year-old mother and new grandmother from Michoac谩n said she fled her hometown because of extreme violence there.
鈥淲e do not want to enter as illegals,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why we are here in Tijuana waiting to enter properly, not to be smuggled.鈥� She held her 15-day-old grandchild as she described how her family has been waiting six months at the Movimiento Juventud 2000 migrant shelter, located a stone鈥檚 throw from the U.S.-Mexico border.
Trump has said he plans to discontinue the Biden administration鈥檚 use of CBP One, through which migrants can apply for asylum in the U.S. But it remains unclear what will happen to people who have already spent months in Mexico on the waiting list for their initial asylum screening appointment.
Impact on U.S. citizens
Trump鈥檚 border policies may also have significant impacts on all Californians by disrupting trade and expanding surveillance.
His administration would have to extend the border surveillance apparatus already in place to carry out deportations on the scale he has planned, experts said. Federal authorities to ground sensors and thermal imaging to detect migrants in recent years.
鈥淕iven the indiscriminate nature of mass surveillance, it is possible that U.S. citizens and others permanently in the country will also be caught in its web,鈥� said Petra Molnar, a Harvard faculty associate, lawyer and author of the book 鈥淭he Walls Have Eyes: Surviving Migration in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.鈥�
Trump鈥檚 plans for the border also seem poised to reverberate across regional economies and in Mexico.
On Monday, Trump said he plans to impose tariffs on Mexico if the country doesn鈥檛 stop the northbound flow of migrants and fentanyl. Local business leaders scoffed as they recalled the damage to the border region鈥檚 economy during Trump鈥檚 first term. The peso slumped to a two-year low.
鈥淚t鈥檚 important to remember that we aren鈥檛 just trading with Mexico, we鈥檙e producing together,鈥� said San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce CEO Jerry Sanders, a Republican and former mayor of the border city. 鈥淎t the end of the day, this would be a tax on U.S. customers and would likely set off a domino effect of other countries imposing retaliatory measures to protect their own interests.鈥�
A massive deportation campaign clearly would impact California鈥檚 economy.
Over half of all California workers are immigrants or children of immigrants, and collectively, the state鈥檚 undocumented residents paid nearly $8.5 billion in taxes in 2022, playing a key role in stimulating the state鈥檚 economy, according to the California Budget & Policy Center and data estimates from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.
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