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California housing politics enters uncharted waters

Andrew Nixon
/
Capital Public Radio

For northern California housing politics, judgment day has come.

Cities across the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area had until Wednesday to show state regulators how they plan to approve a sufficient quantity of housing over the next decade.

Some submitted their plans on time. . Some made an earnest effort to comply. Others . Some will have their plans accepted. Others have already had . Suburbanites viscerally opposed to new construction and density in their neighborhoods . Pro-development activists are celebrating a 鈥淶oning Holiday.鈥

As of Thursday afternoon, of the 109 cities and counties in the region, 66 have either had their . Two have had their plans approved and finalized: San Francisco, which approved , and the city of Alameda, which agreed to . Emeryville and Redwood City have both gotten tentative thumbs- ups, too.

While Gov. Gavin Newsom , 82,000 units in eight years is a far cry from , which itself is a big cut from the 3.5 million he campaigned on in 2018.

With housing scofflaws abounding, the question remains: What鈥檚 the state going to do about it?

First, a brief primer on how we got here:

  • Since the late 1960s, the state has been telling local governments how much housing they need to plan for to accommodate a growing population.
  • Throughout most of the law鈥檚 history, the state .
  • In recent years, a series of laws authored mostly by Bay Area Democrats in the Legislature and .
  • Also on the books: The 鈥溾 that forces cities and counties that are out of compliance with state planning rules to approve any housing anywhere, as long as 20% of its units are set aside for low-income renters and buyers.

Advocates on both sides of the issue have been alternately clamoring for, and dreading, a. But housing experts note that we鈥檙e in uncharted waters.

  •  The old law is 鈥渟o poorly drafted and confusing that developers of ordinary prudence haven鈥檛 been willing to chance it.鈥
  • : 鈥淢ost advocates expect there to be litigation around the issue. So much of this is untested.鈥

Southern California may provide some glimpse of the Bay Area鈥檚 future. The state has been slow-rolling its housing plan deadlines,, and much of Southern California. The legal battles are on: its city attorney against the state鈥檚 mandates and to see whether the builder鈥檚 remedy applies there.

Top of mind:

In a statewide , 60% of respondents said they were 鈥渧ery concerned鈥 that the cost of housing will prevent younger members of their family from buying a home in their part of the state.

That鈥檚 compared to 4% who reported being not at all concerned. Lucky them.

But there鈥檚 some progress: A dozen community colleges have been awarded $500 million (with hundreds of millions more on the way) to build new dorms and expand existing ones. Andrea Madison and Katherine Bent with reported on two new projects that for California鈥檚 student housing.

 is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.