It鈥檚 difficult for housing advocates to criticize Gov. Gavin Newsom because he鈥檚 done more to boost production than any other governor in recent memory 鈥� but that鈥檚 mostly because the bar is so low.
Measured against the goal he set for himself, Newsom鈥檚 record is less impressive. Just 13% of the 3.5 million homes he campaigned on building have been permitted, let alone built. He鈥檚 walked back the goal many times, settling on a new target earlier this year: Cities need to have planned a combined 2.5 million homes by 2030. So, a million fewer homes planned for, not built, and over a longer time frame.
Newsom can point to some accomplishments: He signed bills that capped , on most developable land and unlocked millions of potential apartments . He sheltered experiencing homelessness amid a generational pandemic and dedicated more dollars to housing and homelessness than ever before.
But as he finalizes his first term and , Newsom finds himself mired in an even deeper housing and than the one he inherited.
Running for governor in 2017, then-Lt. Gov. Newsom pledged to spur a never-before-seen tsunami of homebuilding in California to bridge the gap between the growing population and shrinking stock of housing driving the affordability crisis.
鈥淎s Governor, I will lead the effort to develop the 3.5 million new housing units we need by 2025 because our solutions must be as bold as the problem is big,鈥� Newsom .
The goal was true to character: . It would have required building an average of 500,000 homes a year in a state that has only surpassed the 300,000 mark .
Newsom didn鈥檛 get even close.
In the nearly four years since he took office, California cities are projected to have permitted a total of about 452,000 homes 鈥� less than he pledged he鈥檇 build in one year alone, according to local data collected by the Construction Industry Research Board.
When asked about his shortcomings at a , Newsom wrote off his original goal as he has , by paraphrasing Michelangelo.
鈥淭he biggest risk in life, however one defines risk, is not that we aim too high and miss it. It鈥檚 that we aim too low and reach it,鈥� Newsom said. 鈥淚t was always a stretch goal.鈥�
Housing advocates acknowledge that policy change is by nature slow and incremental, and like many other proposals, long-term housing goals took a backseat to the COVID-19 pandemic.
But the reality on the ground 鈥� that there aren鈥檛 enough houses for everyone and the ones that exist are hideously expensive 鈥� continues to exasperate Californians who repeatedly rank housing and homelessness .
State Sen. Brian Dahle, the Republican , and other state Republicans have routinely attacked Newsom鈥檚 record on housing, including on homelessness.
鈥淲e need government to treat this the way we treat a natural disaster, because that鈥檚 how it鈥檚 impacting people鈥檚 lives,鈥� said Chione Lucina Mu帽oz Flegal, executive director of , a housing advocacy organization. 鈥淎nd that鈥檚 not what we see happening.鈥�
A Marshall Plan for housing?
Housing policy advocates described Newsom鈥檚 stated goal of 3.5 million new homes in four years the same way he has: aspirational. They say that鈥檚 because the state doesn鈥檛 build housing in California 鈥� private developers do, with the approval of local governments. So what really grabbed advocates鈥� attention was the 鈥淢arshall Plan for affordable housing鈥� Newsom pledged to launch during his , recalling the multi-billion dollar program to rebuild Western Europe following World War II.
鈥淎s much as the number was important, the idea of building a streamlined process of building, that was amazing, because that鈥檚 really the challenge of California,鈥� said Dan Dunmoyer, president of the California Building Industry Association. He said that dream remains elusive.
California has some of the in the nation because of how little 鈥渕arshaling鈥� there is, Dunmoyer said. Land costs are prohibitive, and zoning rules limit much of what can be built. Housing must get approved at the local level, which has ample opportunity for community input. Those communities can then block unpopular projects, such as multi-family or affordable housing. Another culprit: impact fees cities charge to fund infrastructure that can , some of the highest in the nation.
The closest Newsom may have gotten to bulldozing those barriers is . After COVID-19 hit, the administration scrambled to turn 94 hotels and motels into more than 6,000 shelter units for people experiencing homelesnsess, which would later become permanent homes, within record-setting months. The projects often blamed for slowing or killing controversial projects. The state has since expanded the $800 million project with more than $2.75 billion in new funding.
Newsom signed more than a dozen bills allowing housing types that met certain conditions to skip lengthy approval processes at the local level. Two are expected to have the biggest impact: one which on the two-thirds of developable land in California previously zoned for single-family homes, and another that allows apartments on land previously allotted for .
While a zoning change doesn鈥檛 build housing, it鈥檚 a first step to making it legal. Combined, the two laws could open up previously blocked space for more than housing units.
鈥淭he effect of legislation is often hard to prove, because it鈥檚 only one factor of many in the development process,鈥� said Louis Mirante, vice president of public policy at the . 鈥淭o stop a project, you only need one red light. But to make a project go, you need at least 100 green lights. A lot of the legislation the governor has been signing has been those green lights.鈥�
But yellow and red lights abound, including rising interest rates and prohibitive material costs. While it took political courage to sign a controversial measure like the one streamlining duplex and fourplex construction, Newsom remained largely quiet on those bills until they reached the finish line, and hasn鈥檛 championed a more sweeping production policy proposal on his own.
鈥淗e can step in and resolve the problems if he really wanted to prioritize the issue,鈥� said Chris Martin, policy director at Housing California. 鈥淗e has the power to do it but politically, it鈥檚 challenging. He鈥檚 going to have to make some uncomfortable decisions.鈥�
鈥淭o stop a project, you only need one red light. But to make a project go, you need at least 100 green lights. A lot of the legislation the governor has been signing has been those green lights.鈥�LOUIS MIRANTE, VICE PRESIDENT OF PUBLIC POLICY, BAY AREA COUNCIL
Moving the goalposts
While Newsom has repeatedly called the 3.5 million goal taken from a a moonshot, he has put his weight behind another number: 2.5 million. That鈥檚 how many homes the Legislature has mandated California cities to plan for by 2030, and Newsom鈥檚 team is making sure they do.
鈥淏efore we can reach our stretch goals, before you can reach the moon, you鈥檝e got to get off the launch pad,鈥� said Jason Elliott, Newsom鈥檚 senior counselor on housing and homelessness.
The planning law has been on the books for decades, but it wasn鈥檛 until 2017 that the state Legislature gave the process teeth by creating standards and penalties cities must abide by. The plans for the housing that those standards and penalties apply to weren鈥檛 even due for most cities until this year. And the deadlines are different for different regions. It鈥檚 a slow process.
Cities now have to zone for more than double the housing they did in previous years, and it has to be on sites where housing could actually be built. And if they don鈥檛 do it, they risk or even .
But having laws on the books 鈥� even if they feature new penalties 鈥� doesn鈥檛 mean anything unless someone is there to enforce them.
To that end, Newsom staffed up a $4.65 million within the housing department, with . Cities seem to be paying heed, but it鈥檚 all fun and games until actual homes get built.
鈥淔or many years in California, the Regional Housing Needs (Allocation) process was an afterthought at best,鈥� Elliott said. 鈥淚t was not taken seriously because there were largely no consequences for local governments failing to meet their responsibilities. And that鈥檚 not ancient history, but through a very concerted effort by this governor and the administration in partnership with the Legislature, RHNA is now very serious. And I think communities are taking it seriously.鈥�
But planning isn鈥檛 building, and a recurring complaint about the process from cities is that while it requires a lot of affordable housing to be planned for 鈥� 1 million of the 2.5 million units must be affordable to the lowest earners 鈥� the state doesn鈥檛 provide nearly enough tax credits and other subsidies to build it.
鈥淲e鈥檙e funding a quarter of that, at best,鈥� said Paavo Monkkonen, associate professor of urban planning at UCLA鈥檚 Luskin School of Public Affairs. 鈥淪o that鈥檚 an interesting conundrum, where their own goal is unattainable. And there鈥檚 not really a Manhattan Project to make that happen.鈥�
With the Legislature, Newsom has dedicated unprecedented dollars to affordable housing, including . Funding the current affordable housing need alone, however, would require , according to a recent estimate from Housing California and California Housing Partnership. And there is no long-term source of funding for housing in California. As budget projections for next year sour, affordable housing advocates worry those funds might dry up.
鈥淚n these years of good budget outlook, the administration has done a really good job,鈥� said Marina Wiant, vice president of government affairs at the , a non-partisan housing advocacy organization. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be interesting to see what they do when they have to make tough budget choices.鈥�
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