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California鈥檚 cap on health care costs is the nation鈥檚 strongest. But will patients notice?

Vickie Villegas sits in the waiting room at the West Coast Neurology office in Pasadena on April 24, 2024. She has faced steep health care costs since she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.
Brandon Tauszik
/
CalMatters
Vickie Villegas sits in the waiting room at the West Coast Neurology office in Pasadena on April 24, 2024. She has faced steep health care costs since she was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.

California鈥檚 new cap on health care cost increases is regarded as the most aggressive in the nation. It includes potential fines against companies that exceed the limit.

Vickie Villegas had to pay $3,000 out-of-pocket every time she was treated for multiple sclerosis, a disease that attacks the central nervous system. Her doctor recommended she get treatments twice a year to keep the disease from worsening, but she couldn鈥檛 afford it, the Pasadena-area resident said.

鈥淚 just couldn鈥檛 keep up,鈥 Villegas said. Her disease progressed, and she lost use of her left hand.

When an infection landed Estevan Rodriguez-Hernandez in the hospital for a week in 2020, his bill totaled more than $167,000. After insurance, Rodriguez-Hernandez owed $5,600, but the COVID-19 pandemic prevented him from working.

鈥淚 remember seeing that bill, and I talked to my mom and was like 鈥業鈥檓 gonna go bankrupt,鈥欌 Rodriguez-Hernandez, who lives near Monterey, said.

Villegas鈥 and Rodrigeuz-Hernandez鈥 stories are all too common in California, where the average .

Vickie Villegas sits with Dr. Lise Phan, while she uses an EMG machine to check Villega鈥檚 nerve muscle stimulation in Pasadena on April 24, 2024.
Brandon Tauszik
/
CalMatters
Vickie Villegas sits with Dr. Lise Phan, while she uses an EMG machine to check Villega鈥檚 nerve muscle stimulation in Pasadena on April 24, 2024.

California is moving to address their needs with a that experts consider to be the most aggressive in the nation. The cap does not mean that bills that patients such as Villegas and Rodrigeuz-Hernandez are charged would go down. It aims to limit how much consumers pay over time by first constraining how much the health care industry spends. Research suggests up to on overtreatment and administrative inefficiencies.

By 2029, California hospitals, doctors and insurers cannot increase spending by more than 3% annually. This means they will need to find ways to cut costs to keep from exceeding the target. If they do exceed it, state regulators with the Office of Health Care Affordability have the authority to levy fines and other penalties 鈥渃ommensurate with the failure of the health care entity to meet the target,鈥 according to state law. The law also has guardrails preventing health care entities from saving money by reducing services.

The cap, which was set in April, is modeled on the work of eight other states, including Massachusetts, that have tried to curtail runaway health spending. California went further by allowing the state to compel public testimony from health care facilities, require performance improvement plans and impose on businesses that exceed the cost cap.

Massachusetts, by contrast, has ordered just and it has not levied a fine on any provider since it created its own cost control target in 2012. It also has the ability to fine facilities that spend too much, but regulators there say penalties are too small to be meaningful. Health insurance premiums there have climbed 43%, outpacing wage growth over nine years.

鈥淲e felt like you need a stick. You need something to say 鈥榃e鈥檙e serious. We鈥檙e going to set these targets, and you鈥檙e going to meet them,鈥欌 said , a Democrat from Ukiah who wrote the law that created California鈥檚 affordability board and spending cap.

State officials say the tougher approach could help patients see real savings. Last month, the Office of Health Care Affordability met in Monterey County, one of the most expensive health care markets in the state, to discuss affordability challenges.

鈥淲hat happens in Monterey has ripples,鈥 Dr. , California鈥檚 outgoing secretary of Health and Human Services, said at the meeting where board members discussed regulatory options for addressing market failures.

The state鈥檚 hospital and doctors lobbies opposed the cost control cap, saying it was unreasonable given inflation spikes over the past two years. They pushed for a higher benchmark, but the board held to 3.5% next year, which would ramp down to 3% by 2029. That number, board members said, reflects the average growth of median household income over the past 20 years, tying it directly to the consumer experience.

California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly speaks during a press conference in Fontana on Feb. 17, 2022. He leads a state board charged with bringing down California health care costs.
Alisha Jucevic
/
CalMatters
California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly speaks during a press conference in Fontana on Feb. 17, 2022. He leads a state board charged with bringing down California health care costs.

California Medical Association President Dr. Tanya Spirtos wrote in a letter to the board that 鈥渕ost physician practices and health care entities鈥 will not meet the target, and that patient care would suffer.

Rodriguez-Hernandez, who faced the steep medical bill from his infection, spoke to the board last month and urged it to be tough with the industry. He works part time as a bartender in Monterey and part time as a community health advocate. He blew through his savings to pay rent and relied on a food bank for a time to cut costs after his hospital stay. It took him two years to pay off his medical bill. Today, he doesn鈥檛 have insurance.

Is it working in other states?

Much like California, Massachusetts is known for its world-class health care system bolstered by academic research centers. In 2012 it was also one of the most expensive places in the country to get care. Health advocates and lawmakers wanted to do something to make it more affordable.

鈥淚t can鈥檛 be that health care just has a blank check to grow as fast as it wants because we鈥檙e all paying for that, and the result is that more people then can鈥檛 afford to get the care that they need,鈥 said David Seltz, executive director of the Massachusetts Health Policy Commission.

Lawmakers there came up with a strategy to rein in costs. They established the Health Policy Commission, which would set a growth target for the industry and publicize its progress. Initially it set a target of 3.6% annual growth rate. In the first five years, commercial spending on health care was estimated to be $7 billion less than it would have been without the regulations, according to an . Other states modeled their own health care cost control measures on the one in Massachusetts.

鈥淭hat sentinel effect, that watchdog effect I do believe has changed market behavior,鈥 Seltz said. 鈥淚s that enough? No.鈥

Consumers are still experiencing unaffordable cost increases, said Alex Sheff, senior director of policy and government relations at Health Care For All Massachusetts, a consumer advocacy organization.

The most recent reveals spending on private health insurance outpaced general inflation and wage growth in 2021. For a family of four, out-of-pocket cost of deductibles, copays and premiums averaged $25,000. Nearly 43% of Massachusetts residents with private insurance are enrolled in high-deductible health plans, more than double the proportion enrolled 10 years ago when the state first started tackling costs.

Increasing prices, rather than greater health care usage, are the primary driver of spending increases, according to the report. Since 2017, total health care expenditures per capita have regularly exceeded the benchmark set by the state commission.

鈥淲hen you see premiums continuing to grow at a faster rate and often at the same time out of pocket costs are going up鈥t suggests that consumers are not benefiting from all of the savings that the benchmark might be creating,鈥 Sheff said.

Massachusetts needs more regulatory oversight and stricter penalties, Sheff said. Only for excessive spending in the commission鈥檚 12-year history, and the maximum fine that can be levied is $500,000, an amount Seltz characterized as 鈥渘ot a significant deterrent given the size and scale of these organizations.鈥

California, they say, has set itself up for more success in that regard.

Spending trends in California

Despite near universal in California, more than half of residents still struggle to afford health care services, according to the 鈥檚 most recent state survey. The reality of what that looks like has made its way directly to the state鈥檚 new affordability board.

. For months, working-class families from Monterey have trekked to board meetings in Sacramento to decry the high cost of health care. Some employers pay for workers to see doctors outside of the county because it鈥檚 cheaper. Meanwhile, people like Rodriguez-Hernandez are plagued by the stress of medical debt.

鈥淔or people like us, $5,000 is a lot. A lot of working class people, we don鈥檛 have savings,鈥 Rodriguez-Hernandez said.

The main road to the Community Hospital of the Monterey Peninsula in Monterey on Friday Dec. 15, 2023. California鈥檚 new health care affordability board has focused on prices in Monterey County.
Manuel Orbegozo
/
CalMatters.
The main road to the Community Hospital of the Monterey Peninsula in Monterey on Friday Dec. 15, 2023. California鈥檚 new health care affordability board has focused on prices in Monterey County.

Local advocacy efforts prompted the affordability board to conduct a review of the region and hold its most recent meeting on the peninsula.

Prices for the three primary hospitals in the county 鈥 Community Hospital of the Monterey Peninsula, Salinas Valley Memorial Hospital, and Natividad Medical Center 鈥 are substantially higher than the state average and average prices for Bay Area hospitals, according to a presentation from Christopher Whaley, a national expert on hospital pricing.

According to Covered California data, the average annual premium increase for plans in the region has exceeded 10% since the state implemented the Affordable Care Act marketplace. At the same time, the region tends to be healthier than most other areas of the state. Representatives from the California Public Employees鈥 Retirement System, which provides health insurance to about 1.5 million people, also told the board that high prices did not improve quality.

At least one hospital in Monterey has committed to reducing costs as a result of the public scrutiny. Montage Health, the parent company of Community Hospital of the Monterey Peninsula, said it would look for $50 million in cost reductions over the next two years.

鈥淢ontage Health is committed to continuing to work on ways to create efficiencies in care to improve affordability, while maintaining access to high-quality, local care for our community,鈥 said Mindy Maschmeyer, director of marketing and communications for Montage Health, in a statement.

Natividad, the county鈥檚 safety net hospital, said in a statement that its services are 鈥渁vailable to everyone every day, especially the vulnerable and underserved, regardless of ability to pay.鈥

Assessing market failures is one of the responsibilities of the affordability board, although it was unclear whether the board will take further action in Monterey. Dr. Ghaly, board chair, said during the recent meeting that state regulators need to better understand why prices are so high in California without improvements in quality.

鈥淲hat are we getting out of what we鈥檙e paying for? This is a key question Californians probably ask every time they open up their paycheck. What do those (health insurance) dollars pay for?鈥 Ghaly said.

Vickie Villegas outside of her home in Monrovia on April 24, 2024.
Brandon Tauszik
/
CalMatters
Vickie Villegas outside of her home in Monrovia on April 24, 2024.

Villegas, whose family started a GoFundMe in order for her to get a stem cell transplant in 2021, said her multiple sclerosis is better these days. In 2017, when she was diagnosed, Villegas said she was the primary breadwinner for her family and chose to prioritize paying for their mortgage and kids鈥 schooling.

鈥淚鈥檝e managed getting through this the best I can, but I don鈥檛 think that鈥檚 true for everyone. (Cost) is limiting people from receiving adequate care,鈥 Villegas said.

Though it may take years for Californians to notice the benchmark in their expenses, Assemblymember Wood said he believes it will lower costs.

鈥淚t isn鈥檛 business as usual anymore, and I think that is upsetting to entities who just kind of like the way they鈥檝e been doing things,鈥 Wood said.

Supported by the California Health Care Foundation (CHCF), which works to ensure that people have access to the care they need, when they need it, at a price they can afford. Visit www.chcf.org to learn more.

 is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics. 

Kristen Hwang is a health reporter for CalMatters, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics, and a JPR news partner.. She covers , abortion and reproductive health, workforce issues, drug costs and emerging public health matters.