In their first about the COVID-19 pandemic in more than a month, officials at the Oregon Health Authority acknowledged what the public has seen in for the last few weeks: Case numbers are going up. Oregon has seen case numbers go up from a low of 200 or 300 cases on a single day to about 600 daily cases, according to official state numbers.
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But officials struck a reassuring tone, saying the key indicators that are of highest concern 鈥� hospitalizations and deaths 鈥� are not going up. Deputy state health officer Tom Jeanne said the rise in cases is consistent with models and expectations, and a result of not just the arrival of the new BA.2 subvariant of omicron, but also due to recent changes in people鈥檚 behavior.
鈥淚t鈥檚 been a little more than four weeks since the lifting of mask use in most settings, and some of the jump we鈥檙e seeing in case counts is likely tied to less mask use, and more Oregonians gathering indoors and returning to pre-pandemic social activities,鈥� Jeanne said.
With the this week on public transportation. including on airplanes, buses and trains, state health officials anticipate a further rise in COVID-19 case counts. But Jeanne wasn鈥檛 sure how much of a factor that policy change would be.
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to say, this is in the context of everything else that鈥檚 changing,鈥� Jeanne said, noting the change in seasons and evolution of social behavior.
鈥淲hat we know is that cases are already going up in Oregon, they鈥檙e going up around the country right now.鈥�
Health officials have emphasized in recent weeks that what鈥檚 more important than rising COVID-19 case numbers is the rate of hospitalizations. Jeanne noted there are far fewer people in the hospital either with COVID or directly because of it than in earlier stages of the pandemic. This month, the hospitalization average has been fewer than 100 patients, down from a high of more than 10 times that high during previous surges. However, Jeanne acknowledged that hospitalizations tend to be a lagging indicator.
鈥淲e鈥檙e also going to see an impact on our hospitalizations, eventually here, and deaths, as those cases go up,鈥� Jeanne said. 鈥淏ut the projections look like any peak we鈥檙e going to see in the near future here is going to be quite a bit lower than our large peaks last year and this past winter.鈥�
The general message from health officials didn鈥檛 change much at the Wednesday briefing, with a focus on getting vaccinated, or a booster shot if possible. Officials noted the frequency of breakthrough cases, and the strong possibility of getting the virus even for people who鈥檝e been vaccinated. But they reiterated that vaccines and boosters are also highly effective at limiting the severity of disease 鈥� and keeping people out of the hospital.
OHA acknowledged that its data picture continues to be incomplete. It鈥檚 possibly even less complete than it鈥檚 been at previous stages of the pandemic, as more people test themselves for COVID-19 without reporting positive results to local public health authorities.
鈥淭he proportion of cases reported to public health also has likely declined with more home tests available,鈥� Jeanne said.
State health officials said Oregon鈥檚 undercount could mean the public is only learning of roughly one-tenth of COVID-19 in the community. At the same time, public health officials noted that an 鈥渦ndercount鈥� of cases has been a challenge since the start of the pandemic, with symptomatic people not getting tested.
Many people who get COVID-19, especially if they鈥檝e been vaccinated and are at low risk for severe infection, can recover from the disease at home without specialized medications for COVID-19. But public health physician Paul Cieslak said that there is a treatment available in Oregon that鈥檚 considered 89% effective at preventing severe disease: . He noted that it鈥檚 intended for people at the highest risk for severe illness.
鈥淭his is the sort of thing where you need a diagnosis and the medication that requires a prescription,鈥� Cieslak said. 鈥淚t should be one-stop shopping for people who think they have COVID-19 and are at risk for severe disease.鈥�
OHA said the Wednesday briefing is the first of monthly updates it will provide on the pandemic, going forward.
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