In early December, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a to curb the state鈥檚 record spread of COVID-19, which has over the past two weeks.
The new business and travel restrictions were tied to intensive care unit capacity and kicked in within days across most of the state, shutting down bars, wineries, movie theaters, salons, barber shops, all restaurant dining and limiting retailers to operating at no more than 20% capacity.
鈥淭he bottom line is if we don鈥檛 act now, our hospital system will be overwhelmed,鈥� Gov. Gavin Newsom said at a news conference on Dec. 3 when he introduced the order.
Shortly after, the state鈥檚 GOP lawmakers criticized the move, saying it would harm business and claiming there鈥檚 no evidence government 鈥渓ockdowns鈥� work.
鈥淕overnment imposed lockdowns do NOT reduce cases or stop spikes,鈥� California state Asm. James Gallagher claimed . 鈥淣either science or reality justify the Governor鈥檚 announcement today 鈥� just look at how California鈥檚 case count compares to less restrictive states.鈥�
Gallagher represents much of the northern Sacramento Valley, including Butte, Tehama, Sutter, Yuba, Colusa and Glenn counties.
鈥淏y now, it should be obvious that the lockdowns have failed to contain this virus,鈥� added Rep. Tom McClintock, whose district includes Sacramento鈥檚 eastern suburbs and Sierra Nevada communities, speaking .
For months, there鈥檚 been robust debate about whether government shutdowns go too far and unnecessarily harm society and the economy.
That鈥檚 a debate that will continue and not something we can fact-check. But Gallagher鈥檚 claim that government shutdowns don鈥檛 reduce COVID-19 cases or stop spikes is more clear cut.
We sifted through the research and asked public health experts to weigh in.
Do government shutdowns work?
Experts and several studies show government-imposed shutdowns do work to slow COVID-19 when combined with mask mandates, social distancing and hand hygiene requirements. They also depend on the public鈥檚 willingness to comply with the orders.
Here鈥檚 one recent example: A state-mandated stay-at-home order in Delaware this spring, combined with public mask mandates and contact tracing, led to an 82% reduction in COVID-19 cases, an 88% drop in hospitalizations and a 100% decline in deaths, according to a November .
鈥淭hese strategies are effective in limiting potential exposure to [COVID-19] and reducing community transmission when implemented as part of a multicomponent strategy,鈥� the study concluded.
鈥淣o single mitigation strategy is likely to be effective alone,鈥� it added.
狈别飞蝉辞尘鈥檚 takes a similar approach. It calls for shutting down several business sectors. But it also requires 鈥�100% masking and physical distancing,鈥� in sectors that remain open.
Nowhere in the order does it say the government shutdowns by themselves are sufficient to slow the virus.
Success depends on public cooperation
Another , conducted by economics professors at the University of Kentucky and published in May in Health Affairs medical journal, found that social distancing mandates by state and local governments in the U.S. on average reduced the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases by 5.4% after one to five days, 6.8% after six to 10 days, 8.2% after 11 to 15 days, and 9.1% after 16 to 20 days.
Notably, it concluded the 鈥渆ffectiveness鈥� of these orders 鈥渄epends critically on the cooperation of the public.鈥�
鈥淔or example,鈥� the study continued, 鈥渁lthough California鈥檚 first-in-the-nation shelter-in-place order [from March] carries threats of fines and incarceration, its effectiveness fundamentally relies on social pressure.鈥�
Lee Riley is professor and chair of infectious disease and vaccinology at UC Berkeley鈥檚 School of Public Health. He said the confusion over whether shutdowns work is understandable, considering states with some of the toughest mandates are also experiencing the biggest spikes.
鈥淭he problem is when these restrictions are eased or lifted, that鈥檚 when we see the resurgence,鈥� Riley explained. 鈥淭his is what people are looking at and saying the restrictions don鈥檛 work. And that鈥檚 absolutely incorrect. Restrictions do work.鈥�
Riley said places such as China, Singapore and Taiwan all imposed rigorous restrictions and contained the coronavirus spread. 鈥淵es, the restrictions do work and if they鈥檙e maintained for a long enough period, then they can eventually mitigate the transmissions completely.鈥�
Previous fact check
Last month, who said shutdowns are 鈥渋neffective,鈥� before adding that workplace gatherings are not a common way for COVID-19 to spread.
For that fact check, experts told PolitiFact that if measuring strictly transmission rates and case numbers, shutdowns have proven to be effective in managing spread. They also noted that Abbott鈥檚 statement ignores workplaces where proper precautions are difficult to achieve from meatpacking plants to the construction industry.
PolitiFact rated Abbot鈥檚 claim as False.
'Correlation is not causation'
In an interview, Gallagher, the California state lawmaker, said he stood by his claim that shutdowns don鈥檛 reduce cases or stop spikes, describing the evidence as inconclusive.
He suggested that the decline in coronavirus cases this spring could have resulted from people鈥檚 voluntary actions to distance and use good hygiene upon hearing about the virus, and not because of lockdowns.
鈥淐orrelation is not causation,鈥� Gallagher said. 鈥淛ust because something happens to happen at the same time that you鈥檙e doing X, doesn鈥檛 mean that there wasn鈥檛 some other variable that was leading to that.鈥�
Riley said Gallagher鈥檚 theory doesn鈥檛 hold up.
鈥淚f good hygiene and voluntary social distancing are what contributed to the decrease in cases, why are we seeing another surge all over the country?鈥� the professor asked.
鈥淭he point of the lockdowns is to decrease chances of social gathering and social interaction, which is the most effective way to assure social distancing,鈥� Riley added. 鈥淭his lawmaker is correct that social distancing works, but lockdowns help to increase the social distancing.鈥�
Gallagher provided links to several opinion pieces and letters that he said demonstrate lockdowns don鈥檛 work. One was a link to the , a letter three scientists authored that endorses herd immunity and supports a completely reopened society for those with no underlying health conditions amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since its publication in early October, however, and denounced by top health officials and thousands of doctors around the world.
The paper was signed by scientists and health experts across the world. But a British broadcast station found that online used fake names, including "Dr. Person Fakename" and "Dr. Johnny Bananas." The signatures were later made private.
Gallagher also cited an by a chief investments officer for an analytics firm; a free-market think tank鈥檚 that cites the Great Barrington Declaration; an that says a combination of 鈥渘on-pharmaceutical interventions,鈥� such as business closures, social distancing or mask-wearing, 鈥渋s necessary to curb the spread of the virus,鈥� but that less disruptive restrictions can be as effective as more drastic ones.
Additionally, Gallagher cited a that concluded Germany鈥檚 decline in COVID-19 infections in the spring was due to the cancellation of mass events and voluntary behavior changes, but not the government restrictions that followed.
Germany announced it will until at least Jan. 10 to curb the spread of the pandemic.
The science is 'Pretty clear'
Erin Mordecai is an assistant professor in biology at Stanford University whose research focuses on the ecology of infectious disease. She has conducted research on the relationship between virus transmission and mobility data in California and Georgia. She said mobility, measured based on mobile device movements, generally declines immediately following stay-at-home orders. That reduction in mobility corresponds with a decline in transmission and ultimately the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, she said.
鈥淭he science shows pretty clearly that non-pharmaceutical interventions---business closures, social distancing, mask-wearing---including so-called 鈥榞overnment lockdowns鈥� do work to slow the spread of COVID-19,鈥� Mordecai wrote in an email.
Right now, she added, there鈥檚 a strong argument for shutting down in- person contact as much as possible.
鈥淚f our ICUs are nearing their maximum capacity, as we're seeing here in California now,鈥� she wrote, 鈥渙ne of our best tools for avoiding a total public health disaster---people dying in hospital hallways, makeshift COVID wards thrown together in gymnasiums, or at home because they're too afraid to go to the hospital---is to rapidly hit the brakes on transmission, which means avoiding contact with others outside our household, especially indoors, where transmission is more likely.鈥�
Our ruling
California state Asm. James Gallagher claimed 鈥淕overnment imposed lockdowns do NOT reduce [COVID-19] cases or stop spikes.鈥�
Infectious disease experts, however, say government shutdowns do work by reducing social interaction which, when maintained, cuts down on the spread of COVID-19.
Several studies, including from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, show government-imposed closures, when combined with mask-wearing, social distancing and hand hygiene, are effective.
The studies and experts also point out there鈥檚 no single strategy that works on its own. California officials have imposed business restrictions while promoting additional strategies to combat COVID-19.
We rated Gallagher鈥檚 claim as False.
Source list
Asm. James Gallagher, , Dec. 3, 2020 and video interview Dec. 11, 2020Lee Riley, professor and chair of infectious disease and vaccinology, UC Berkeley School of Public Health, video interview Dec. 10, 2020
Erin Mordecai, assistant professor of biology, Stanford University, phone interview Dec. 10, 2020
California Department of Public Health, , Dec. 3, 2020
Study in HealthAffairs.org, , May 14, 2020
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nov. 13, 2020The New York Times, , accessed December 2020
CapRadio, , Dec. 3, 2020
San Francisco Chronicle, , Dec. 1, 2020PolitiFact, , Nov. 27, 2020PolitiFact, , Oct. 27, 2020
Donald L. Luskin, op-ed column in the Wall Street Journal, , Sept. 1, 2020
Study in Safety Science, , November 2020
City Journal, , Autumn 2020
Nature, , Nov. 16, 2020
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