The Harney Basin region in southeast Oregon sits in a semi-arid high desert. Yet, it鈥檚 dotted with green circles of water-hungry alfalfa grown for cattle feed. For years, scientists have closely studied the basin to get a more clear picture of just how much groundwater is pumped to water those crops.
Scientists already knew there was a problem, but a new report gives them a more concrete idea. It finds sustainable rates of groundwater pumping were surpassed 20 years before residents and state regulators started ringing the alarm bells.
The study, co-authored by, models over a dozen solutions state regulators and community groups could consider to stabilize groundwater levels in the area. And it then simulates the outcome of each solution over the course of 30 years and their impact on groundwater levels and the profitability of farms that rely on that water to irrigate crops 鈥� which contribute millions of dollars to the local economy.
For the last three decades, groundwater pumping for agricultural irrigation 鈥� which accounts for around 97% of the region鈥檚 groundwater use 鈥� has increased to unsustainable levels, and now outflow from the Harney Basin is more than can naturally be replenished by rain and snowmelt from the mountains. That鈥檚 partly because, for years, the state over-allocated groundwater rights in the area.
Since around 2015, there has been evidence that groundwater levels were out of balance. show groundwater levels in some areas of the basin have declined by more than 100 feet and at least 70 residential and livestock wells have gone dry.
If state regulators don鈥檛 step in, the OSU study shows continued declines in groundwater levels, dropping by 14 feet on average, with declines up to 65 feet in some areas over the 30-year simulation, and an additional 65 wells likely going dry. Farms that rely on groundwater for irrigation will continue to be profitable, albeit, with a decline of $2 million, or 10% of profits.
Farmers will likely have to drill deeper wells to continue irrigating, a costly prospect. People who live in the area and don鈥檛 farm may not be able to afford that expense.
鈥淛ust like an ocean fishery, individual fishers will have an incentive to catch as many fish as they can acting individually. And groundwater irrigators will have an incentive to generate profits as much as they can,鈥� said Bill Jaeger, an OSU economics professor and one of the study鈥檚 authors. 鈥淪o there鈥檚 a need for collective action.鈥�
Jaeger said in one scenario to stabilize groundwater levels, nearly half of all irrigators would have to stop pumping water. That change would halt groundwater鈥恖evel declines, eliminate drying up wells, and stabilize environmental flows 鈥� springs, creeks and lakes dependent on groundwater 鈥� but it would likely hurt farmers' pockets.
鈥淵ou鈥檇 go from $18 million in [irrigated farm] profits a year down to $9 million in profits a year,鈥� Jaeger said.
Some farm advocates have said turning off the spigot suddenly , but there鈥檚 been some support around gradually cutting back on water use and financially incentivizing irrigators to retire their fields.
Neil Brandt, the executive director for Oregon WaterWatch, a nonprofit watchdog group for state water resources, supports a similar idea but, he said, voluntary water conservation practices are not enough.
鈥淲e need a mixture of curtailment and voluntary agreements in the Harney basin to get the basin back to normal ground levels,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think we can get there with voluntary agreements alone.鈥�
Some groups have considered voluntary measures like using sprinklers that are closer to the ground to limit water evaporation or using more energy-efficient water pumps.
But, Jaeger said the study showed that did little to decrease groundwater declines, and would actually lead farmers to use more water, rather than less. He compares it to the way some people might use fuel-efficient cars.
鈥淎 fuel efficient car is cheaper to drive. Data shows people do drive more miles per year if they have a more fuel efficient car,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f a water efficient technology makes it possible for them [farmers] to use a little more water, they might think about how they might use it, to generate a more profitable crop.鈥�
In 2016, the Oregon Water Resources Department put a pause on new groundwater rights in the basin region, but it stopped short of regulating existing water users. The agency did convene a group of to come up with a policy to regulate current users but it鈥檚 unlikely the state will adopt any changes until 2025.
A spokesperson for OWRD declined an interview request from OPB, because of the agency鈥檚 ongoing rulemaking process.