As a popular Tahoe ski resort digs out from a tragedy that and buried several others, scientists say predicting how the warming planet will affect avalanches is elusive at best.
Just after lifts opened on Wednesday, an avalanche tore through the Palisades Tahoe ski resort, creating a . A second one struck in neighboring Alpine Meadows this afternoon, although no one was injured. The US Forest Service and ski resorts take steps to forecast and , and avalanche : Before this week, the last one in California was four years ago.
But what can California鈥檚 skiers and snowboarders expect as because of climate change? Experts say understanding the effects on avalanches is tricky: Climate change is not just a matter of warming temperatures but also .
An array of factors such as wind, rain, previous snowpack and temperatures can all enter into the equation of what causes a mass of snow to slide down a mountain.
鈥淲e are humans working in a natural world. And so everybody does the best they can,鈥� said , a University of Utah professor of atmospheric sciences and author of the book 鈥淪ecrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth.鈥�
The circumstances that lead to avalanches are multifaceted, Steenburgh said: a weak layer in the snowpack, a steep slope and a trigger 鈥� usually people on the slope. The frequency of human-triggered avalanches in the future will continue to depend in large part on how many skiers and snowboarders recreate in risky backcountry areas.
That also means untangling the effects of climate change is especially difficult, or 鈥渆lusive,鈥� as said.
Still, researchers are making a few predictions. Lower-elevation areas that see less snow in a warmer future , but higher elevations could see more intense storms and the potential effects on avalanches there are uncertain.
The United Nations鈥� Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that there was less avalanche hazard at lower elevations, and mixed changes at high elevation. Though the report predicted an increase in avalanches involving wet snow, they found 鈥渘o clear direction of trend for overall avalanche activity.鈥�
Avalanches involving wet snow could increase 鈥� as could conditions where scarce snow and cold, clear weather combine to cause persistent weak layers in the snowpack, creating 鈥渁 major threat to recreationists,鈥� a team of researchers from Switzerland, Italy and the U.S. wrote in a 2021 review paper.
Trauma and injuries could rise as snowpacks dwindle, with less snow to cushion blows from the terrain. And wetter avalanches also could increase buried victims鈥� risk of suffocation in the higher-density snow.
鈥淭here will be a higher risk of disastrous events where poorly managed winter tourism activities, transportation routes, and exploitation of natural resources lead to increases in exposure,鈥� the international study said.
Mixed findings also were reported on other mountain ranges around the planet. Climate warming was linked to in the Western Himalayas 鈥� which the researchers said 鈥渃ontradict the intuitive notion that warming results in less snow, and thus lower avalanche activity.鈥�
But three years later, another team found that the number and magnitude of avalanches dropped substantially at of the Vosges Mountains in northeast France as snow became scarce. They predicted that the increases observed in the Alps and Himalayas 鈥渨ill eventually vanish as warming will become more pronounced to reduce snow cover at increasingly higher elevations.鈥�
Mike Reitzell, president of Ski California, a trade association of 36 ski areas in California and Nevada, said ski resorts in avalanche-prone terrain already have programs to reduce the dangers 鈥� regardless of the impacts of climate change.
鈥淭he slope angles aren鈥檛 going to change with climate change,鈥� Reitzell said. 鈥淭he type of snowpack that there is, whether it鈥檚 a wet snow versus a drier snow, those are things they would already be analyzing anyway.鈥�
鈥楧angerous avalanche conditions鈥�
Ski resorts have to trigger avalanches and remove the mass of snow before it can produce avalanches dangerous to visitors. 鈥淭his greatly reduces, but does not eliminate the avalanche threat,鈥� Steenburgh said.
Before the deadly event on Wednesday, the Sierra Avalanche Center forecast a in the Central Sierra Nevada backcountry.
鈥凄补苍驳别谤辞耻蝉 conditions will continue today. New snow and high winds have existing weak in our snowpack. Large are the main concern today failing well below our recent storm snow. High winds will also continue to create of wind blown snow in exposed areas,鈥� the center reported today.
Palisades Tahoe said the cause of the avalanche .
The resort had already seen a smattering of storms in the months before. Then the wind picked up on Monday night, and light snow started Wednesday morning before the avalanche occurred, according to Chris Johnston, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Reno, Nevada. The storm dropped about 14 inches of snow .
The avalanche occurred just minutes after the resort opened on a steep, black diamond run 鈥� alpine skiing events at the resort, then called Squaw Valley. It was the first day that the famed KT-22 lift had opened for the season. While Palisades reopened today, KT-22 and
, a San Jose State University chair and professor of meteorology who teaches a mountain meteorology class that covers avalanche mechanics, said conditions were primed for an avalanche because high winds transported snow to form a thick slab .
鈥淵ou have a weak shear zone there, and so basically, all that new snow can slide 鈥� you just need to trigger it,鈥� Clements said. 鈥淎nd then it will slide downslope 鈥� and that is dangerous.鈥�
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