The first two months of 2022 are shaping up to be the driest January and February in California history, prompting state officials to warn of dire water conditions ahead.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no precipitation forecast through the remainder of February. And there鈥檚 very little precipitation in the long-range forecast for March,鈥� Erik Ekdahl, a deputy director with the State Water Resources Control Board, said at a board meeting Tuesday. 鈥淎ll this is pointing to, again, some pretty dire conditions statewide for drought.鈥�
After and then , the past six weeks 鈥� usually among the wettest months in California 鈥� have seen at roughly half the yearly average in the state鈥檚 major watersheds.
The dry spell follows the , as the West.
The , which began in early 2020, leaves many water suppliers leaning more on their stored water supplies or shifting to other sources, such as groundwater.
Jennifer Pierre, general manager of the , an association of water agencies in Southern and Northern California and the San Joaquin Valley that receive supplies from the State Water Project, called the storms late last year 鈥渁 blip鈥� that meant little to California鈥檚 water supplies.
The agencies are getting from the state aqueduct, which carries water from Northern California rivers south. Initially, the allocations were , which meant deliveries would only cover enough for public health and safety.
For residents of the Silicon Valley, the conditions could mean tightening restrictions and increasing rebates to reduce water use. In San Jose,鈥� based on a 15% cut in amounts of water they used in 2019 鈥� already have to pay extra fees.
The drought has collided with earthquake retrofits that required almost completely draining the area鈥檚 largest reservoir, knocking out more than half of the storage capacity serving 2 million people in and around San Jose.
In June, Valley Water鈥檚 board mandated a 15% cut to water use from 2019 levels, to be implemented by the local water agencies it supplies. Board chair said he wouldn鈥檛 be surprised to see an update to the restrictions and rebate programs come up for another vote.
鈥淵ou use the word dire,鈥� Kremen said. 鈥淏ut for us, it鈥檚 kind of worse than dire.鈥�
Odds are increasing that February, the wettest month of the year in California, will be nearly or completely dry across much of the state.
— US StormWatch (@US_Stormwatch)
California is already in the midst of a severe multi-year drought, with fire danger skyrocketing across much of the state.
The mean California鈥檚 water supplies are in better shape now than last year, said state climatologist Michael Anderson. Nearly the entire state is , with about two-thirds in severe drought. But if precipitation totals hold, he expects this year to round out the driest three years on record 鈥� even drier than the three-year span between 2013 and 2015 during the .
鈥淭he challenge is, this is year three of the drought rather than year two,鈥� Anderson said. 鈥淎nd in terms of a three-year period, we鈥檙e likely going to set a new record for a three-year window of drought.鈥�
, hasn鈥檛 increased. A critical water supply, the Sierra Nevada snowpack was measured at 72% of normal for Feb. 15, but only 55% of the seasonal average measured on April 1. And in parts of the state, the snow is already melting.
鈥淵ou鈥檙e in this window where you鈥檙e still expecting to be building (snow)pack, but it鈥檚 already starting to melt,鈥� Anderson said. 鈥淭he challenge will be how much snowpack makes it to spring, and how much shows up in the reservoirs.鈥�
Anderson is keeping an eye on the months ahead, and hopes that March will bring more rain and snow than anticipated. A big question will be how much runoff from snow melt in the Sierra Nevada will reach California鈥檚 reservoirs, which saw substantially less runoff than expected last year.
鈥淭he good news is there鈥檚 room in the reservoirs to capture what does make it to the streams and come down,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he challenge is that if we鈥檙e dry this early, the demands for water start earlier.鈥�
1.6" of overnight means that we have ended the longest streak of days without measurable precipitation at the lab!
— UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab (@UCB_CSSL)
The new record is 37 consecutive days without precipitation during meteorological .
Most of the state鈥檚 reservoirs are sitting below historic averages despite the December deluge, with some notable exceptions, such as Folsom Reservoir 鈥� 鈥渢he breadwinner of the storms,鈥� Michael Macon, who works with the water board鈥檚 Division of Water Rights, said Tuesday.
Lake Shasta is about half a million acre-feet 鈥� enough to supply 1.5 million households for one year 鈥� short of where it stood last year. Oroville has climbed above last year鈥檚 levels, but the amount of water flowing out is starting to match water flowing in following a dry January, Macon said.
Looking ahead, Anderson says it鈥檚 a matter of waiting and watching whether spring brings more rain and snow, and how quickly summer heats up.
鈥淭he challenge then becomes, well, what does summer look like? Does it heat up really fast? Do we end up with a lot of heat waves?鈥� he said. 鈥淥r do we get a little bit of a break with some cooler weather?鈥�
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