Imagine you woke up in 2030 to find that Oregon, Washington and British Columbia had done little to slow the global warming that cooked the Cascadia region this year. That killed 600 people in British Columbia alone. That choked Cascadia鈥檚 skies all summer. That spawned tornado warnings in October, and last month washed away freeways, flooded homes and derailed lives on both sides of the border.
Unfortunately that 2030 nightmare scenario is all too conceivable. Just look at what Cascadia woke up to on New Year鈥檚 Day 2021: Our supposedly 鈥済reen鈥� corner of the world came nowhere near to meeting the ambitious climate action goals for 2020 that politicians set a decade earlier, earning themselves accolades and admiration 鈥� not to mention talking points for the campaign trail.
When InvestigateWest launched the series in January 2021, the latest official data showed that emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases had risen steadily from 2012 to 2018, and the region wasn鈥檛 on track to make big cuts this decade.
鈥淲e have not kept pace with the scope of the crisis,鈥� Oregon Global Warming Commission Chair Catherine Macdonald that month.
Since then, the emissions trend actually got worse. We now know that Cascadia鈥檚 greenhouse gas pollution went on increasing in 2019, according to state and provincial data assembled and analyzed by InvestigateWest for this report.
And, despite an unprecedented string of 2021 victories by local activists and politicians dedicated to addressing the climate crisis, big gaps remain in the region鈥檚 response. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee acknowledged a shortfall during a press conference last month: 鈥淓ven with our best-in-the-nation laws, and even with federal action, we don鈥檛 have enough on the books today to actually reduce carbon at the pace we need to.鈥�
To cap this year鈥檚 series, InvestigateWest grappled with how Cascadia can guard against another lost decade. The answer, according to activists, experts and officials, is to identify the region鈥檚 next steps for climate-cutting action, and press harder in 2022.
What鈥檚 hopeful is that climate policies leaped forward this year in Washington, Oregon and British Columbia. Activists won a string of local victories, passing municipal and regional laws to . Legislators in Washington state and Oregon approved long-stymied climate bills. And the British Columbia government overhauled the province鈥檚 climate plan.
鈥淚t鈥檚 been the best year for action on climate in this region,鈥� says Gregg Small, executive director for Seattle-based regional nonprofit Climate Solutions.
But activists, experts, labor leaders, government officials and even some business leaders interviewed by InvestigateWest still question whether we are on track to deliver on make-or-break 2030 goals.
Climate scientists say humanity must halve carbon emissions by the end of this decade to prevent global warming from causing far more devastating climate swings. By 2050, they say, we must reach net-zero emissions, releasing no more carbon than we can pull back out of Earth鈥檚 atmosphere.
The stakes are clear in the string of extreme warming-driven catastrophes that battered Cascadia this year 鈥� events that rattled even experts and activists who鈥檝e spent their entire careers working on climate change. 鈥淚 am deeply sobered,鈥� says Eileen V. Quigley, executive director of the Clean Energy Transition Institute, a regional think tank based in Seattle. 鈥淚 had believed that we still had until 2030 before we would start to see serious impacts of warming.鈥�
. And in the months that followed, the energy modeling she managed helped drive Cascadia鈥檚 legislative breakthroughs. But near 2021鈥檚 end, she describes a sense of 鈥渋mmense urgency.鈥�
Once again, as a decade ago, politicians profess that they are on board. 鈥淲e can't continue to kick the can down the road,鈥� British Columbia Premier John Horgan said a few weeks before record-breaking flooding crippled southern British Columbia in November.
However, leaders on both sides of the border said much the same in the run-up to 2010, when Cascadia set pathbreaking goals to slash climate-altering pollution. Then the leaders fell short on follow-through. What was missing were government policies capable of shoving economic growth onto a track that required less energy from fossil fuels.
Horgan and his counterparts in the states clearly have more carbon-cutting powers in place for this decade. Still, some big gaps remain:
鈥� While simulations suggest that British Columbia鈥檚 upgraded plan could meet its 2030 goal, similar models show Washington and Oregon coming up short. And Oregon鈥檚 goals 鈥� a 45% emissions cut from 1990 levels by 2035 and an 80% cut by 2050 鈥� are well short of Washington鈥檚 and British Columbia鈥檚 targets and what climate scientists advise.
鈥� The region鈥檚 power grid 鈥� part of a larger Western grid 鈥� is too weak and fractured to reliably integrate the massive increase in renewable energy needed to decarbonize.
鈥� Cascadia鈥檚 rules don鈥檛 constrain highway expansion, which tends to increase driving and thus emissions. That鈥檚 a particular concern in the United States, where $110 billion from President Biden鈥檚 infrastructure bill is headed to the states with few strings attached.
鈥� None of Cascadia鈥檚 jurisdictions has proven policies to rein in growing consumption of natural gas, which is backed by a powerful oil and gas industry and associated unions.
Activists say the gaps may be larger still. A key reason: Cascadia鈥檚 governments are counting on driving down fossil fuel dependence by charging a fee for carbon pollution to nudge consumers and industries toward cleaner energy. So far, though, that policy has functioned mostly as a source of revenue rather than actually driving emissions reductions in places like California and Europe, because governments made it relatively cheap and easy to comply. Cascadia鈥檚 leaders, however, are now counting on carbon fees to strongly drive future emissions cuts. In reality, reductions could turn out to be less than advertised. Or rising prices could fuel a political backlash.
Deric Gruen, co-executive director at Seattle-based environmental justice network Front and Centered, also warns that policies designed to encourage cleaner energy may not actually cut fossil fuel use and the associated emissions: 鈥淲hile we are adding renewable energy, much of that is going toward increased overall consumption of energy. Which is what our economy is geared to do.鈥�
There are certainly signs of wishful thinking still to be found in 2021, from politicians across the region. InvestigateWest found one half-truth lurking in British Columbia鈥檚 latest emissions data.
The province鈥檚 official inventory presents carbon emissions as essentially flat in 2019, which is misleading. Factor in the carbon footprint of imported electricity consumed in the province 鈥� which is considered best practice for greenhouse gas reporting by many cities, states and regions 鈥� and British Columbia鈥檚 emissions jumped by more than 1 million metric tons.
In fact, counting all electricity used in British Columbia, the province鈥檚 emissions hit an all-time high in 2019.
Does one more year of rising emissions matter? It does, because that鈥檚 how decades get lost. One year at a time. A year slips by while the public isn鈥檛 paying attention. And then another follows, and the next.
Climate leaders answering 滨苍惫别蝉迟颈驳补迟别奥别蝉迟鈥檚 inquiries provided no shortage of feasible and measurable actions for the next 12 months to keep that from happening again.
Ensuring a cleaner and reliable grid
The power grid is a lynchpin for decarbonization because clean electricity, such as renewable solar and wind power, can . With the recent passage of a bill to clean up Oregon鈥檚 electricity supply, all of the region鈥檚 power providers are now legally obligated to eliminate coal-fired power and to slash or eliminate emissions from generators burning natural gas by 2030.
Utility officials insist they are well positioned to deliver on those mandates. Alas, Cascadia鈥檚 mandated build-out of renewable energy sits on some shaky foundations 鈥� literally, in British Columbia鈥檚 case.
Oregon鈥檚 new clean electricity law, which requires an 80% cut in power plant emissions by 2030 (relative to 2010-2012 emissions), followed a comparable voluntary commitment by Portland General Electric. Maria Pope, the utility鈥檚 CEO, says the utility will be bringing on additional renewable power starting next year to comply and adding flexible resources such as big batteries to help integrate their variable energy. 鈥淲e have very clear pathways to 2030,鈥� says Pope.
Josh Jacobs expresses similar confidence for Seattle-based Puget Sound Energy, which distributes both natural gas and electricity. PSE鈥檚 vice president for clean energy strategy says he feels more optimistic about meeting Washington鈥檚 net-zero electricity goal for 2030 after the utility drafted its first state-mandated clean power plan this year. 鈥淎fter seeing that plan, it feels like a very reasonable glide path to 2030,鈥� says Jacobs.
Diane Brandt, Oregon policy manager for Portland-based renewable energy advocacy organization Renewable Northwest, says utilities in Washington and Oregon could conceivably outpace the state mandates. Her organization commissioned with Berkeley-based nonprofit GridLab and Quigley鈥檚 think tank. They discovered that meeting targets early will save money both for utilities and their consumers.
Other factors could conspire to leave utilities short, however. British Columbia is counting on a new hydropower plant to provide the extra clean power it needs to push vehicles, buildings, and industries off of petroleum and natural gas. But provincial utility BC Hydro is erecting its Site C Dam megaproject on fractured sediment. The resulting , and could ultimately force the dam to operate below its design capacity or to be scrapped altogether. The project also faces a legal challenge from First Nations.
Meanwhile, shifting patterns of precipitation threaten carbon-free hydropower supplies across the region. Lower reservoirs in 2019 contributed to the emissions jumps in Washington and Oregon as those states burned more fossil fuels to produce electricity.
Scott Bolton, senior vice president for transmission development at Portland-based PacifiCorp, calls the growing uncertainty of rain- and snow-driven hydropower part of the 鈥渞ace鈥� to decarbonize: Cascadia must quickly augment this historically dominant power source with wind, solar and other clean energy sources.
Grid experts and industry officials such as Bolton and Pope say a big solution is strengthening the power grid and its coordination so states and provinces across the West can share renewable energy surpluses and backup energy supplies, such as green hydrogen.
One solution within reach for 2022 is completing rules for enhanced energy sharing across the West, including an expanded voluntary market for Cascadia鈥檚 utilities to trade power and another system for sharing backup reserves. 鈥�2022 will be the year that we get it put together, and 2023 will be the year that it starts up,鈥� says Bolton.
Guiding greener growth
Policies to clean up the rest of modern living 鈥� particularly how we get around and how we energize our buildings 鈥� remain Cascadia鈥檚 greatest challenge. While electrical power generation has generally gotten cleaner over the past decade, emissions from transportation and buildings have been growing with the region鈥檚 population. Policy upgrades in 2021 add some guardrails to push those sectors toward lower-carbon energy.
Thanks to this year鈥檚 legislative breakthroughs, all three of Cascadia鈥檚 jurisdictions now have the key growth-guiding policies that have established California as an energy-transition leader:
鈥� Clean fuel standards to ratchet down the carbon content of motor fuels,
鈥� Sales mandates that force automobile manufacturers to phase out gasoline and diesel-fueled cars and trucks, and
鈥� Systems to make carbon polluters pay for each ton of CO2 they emit.
These three programs make climate-friendly consumer options less expensive and more available. They generate revenue to build critical infrastructure such as charging stations for electric vehicles and support clean energy upgrades for low-income residents. And they guide private investment by telling industries and consumers where things are going.
Gregg Small at Climate Solutions and many others interviewed by InvestigateWest say that Job 1 for 2022 is for bureaucrats to break with traditional government practices and adopt an emergency posture to quickly pass rules that meet the climate crisis. Merran Smith, executive director of Vancouver-based nonprofit Clean Energy Canada and a member of British Columbia鈥檚 Climate Solutions Council, says governments need to act decisively 鈥� just as they鈥檝e done to combat COVID.
鈥淲e cannot discuss and debate and consult endlessly. These policies really need to hit the ground quickly. Much faster than we are doing,鈥� says Smith.
Another way for governments to speed up progress in 2022 is to follow the ambition of their neighbors where they have more stringent rules on a given issue.
For example, Washington and Oregon can follow British Columbia鈥檚 rules to phase in zero-emissions vehicles, which are now North America鈥檚 most stringent. Sales of electric cars shot past the province鈥檚 original 2025 target by 2020, so it moved up its gasoline and diesel vehicle phaseout. Automotive suppliers鈥� sales must be 90% carbon-free by 2030 鈥� triple British Columbia鈥檚 previous target.
And Oregon and British Columbia can adopt the policy innovation in Washington鈥檚 new cap and trade law, which sets annual caps for carbon pollution from major industries and creates a market requiring them to buy permits for every ton of carbon they release.
Existing carbon markets, such as California鈥檚, allow more pollution than they should by giving regulated industries credit for financing carbon-cutting activities such as forest conservation, critics say. Weak or faulty rules for such 鈥渃arbon offsets鈥� . But Washington鈥檚 new Climate Commitment Act includes a seemingly failsafe mechanism to combat such manipulation.
Offsets used to comply with Washington鈥檚 program may still prove unreliable or ephemeral. But it aims to limit the damage by ratcheting back the amount of pollution permitted each year, below what鈥檚 allowed by law. That way, even if some companies come up short, the state as a whole makes its goal. In short,
Stepping off the gas
Cascadia鈥檚 least-finished climate business is the growing use of so-called 鈥渘atural鈥� gas. That鈥檚 where Washington Gov. Inslee will be focusing his 2022 efforts. Many new homes and businesses are heated with natural gas, making buildings the state鈥檚 fastest-growing source of emissions. All told, Washington state projects that it needs further policies or mandates that can cut 6.4 million metric tons of carbon 鈥� about 13% of the emissions reduction required by 2030.
Anna Lising, a senior climate adviser to Inslee, says the governor has mapped out several strategies for 2022 to cut gas use in buildings. Those include strengthening the statewide building code to favor high-efficiency electric equipment, such as heat pumps that can heat and cool homes and businesses, and seeking legislation to apply the state鈥檚 energy performance standards to cover a wider range of buildings.
Environmentalists say Washington and Oregon need to take stronger action, essentially ending gas hookups entirely for new buildings. But anti-electrification lobbying and advertising by PSE, other gas-distributing utilities such as Avista, and some unions representing their workers thwarted Washington legislation to do that last year.
The natural gas industry鈥檚 political power really shows in Oregon. Gov. Kate Brown directed the state鈥檚 Public Utility Commission to 鈥渓everage鈥� the state鈥檚 nascent carbon pricing program to 鈥渁dvance decarbonization.鈥� Environmentalists looked to the PUC to respond with a broad inquiry into how the state can phase out natural gas. Instead the PUC constrained itself to considering how pricing carbon might raise gas rates and hurt consumers.
led by attorneys at Portland-based Lewis & Clark Law School鈥檚 Green Energy Institute raised concerns that the PUC鈥檚 inquiry would be 鈥渄riven by鈥� utilities, which have a vested interest in selling more gas.
Small says further efforts to pass are needed in 2022 to set up statewide success later. 鈥淭here needs to be a little more work done at the municipal level, more pressure on utilities to see writing on the wall, before we鈥檒l get state action,鈥� he says.
And despite the United Nations secretary-general鈥檚 appeal for an end to new fossil fuel infrastructure, and some local wins to stop it in Cascadia, new projects keep squeaking through. That鈥檚 especially true in British Columbia, where construction is underway on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) megaproject and a gas pipeline to feed it that鈥檚 . (Not to mention the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, which would deliver seven times more diluted bitumen from Alberta to tankers in Vancouver and Washington refineries.)
Fossil fuel development in British Columbia may not stop there. Additional and could still go forward, encouraged by the province鈥檚 growing subsidies for natural gas drilling and muscular repression of fossil fuel protests. The province鈥檚 police force 鈥� a unit of the RCMP 鈥� arrests members of sovereign First Nations who seek to block the Coastal GasLink pipeline from crossing their traditional territories, while .
Recently, police in British Columbia journalists documenting First Nations protests.
Taking action
During the recent COP26 global climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, the Union of BC Indian Chiefs called for British Columbia to stop investing in gas production. Stewart Phillip, the group鈥檚 president and grand chief of the Okanagan Nation, called the wildfires, heat dome, crop failures and dwindling salmon stocks that British Columbia is experiencing a 鈥渨arning sign that the window for meaningful climate action is narrowing.鈥�
In spite of such warnings, there鈥檚 always a risk that politics could swing against action, threatening the limited momentum that Cascadia鈥檚 energy transition has mustered. Federal support for Washington and Oregon could dry up if Republicans win back control of Congress and the White House.
Oregon鈥檚 climate policies are particularly vulnerable to political winds. Many of its efforts 鈥� including the nearly finalized carbon fee program 鈥� are backstopped by a 2020 executive order by Gov. Brown. That means if she leaves office, that commitment could evaporate.
A leading contender to replace the term-limited governor in next year鈥檚 election is state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a conservative Democrat who helped defeat cap and trade legislation, saying it could 鈥渃ripple鈥� Oregon鈥檚 economy. Johnson has accepted .
If there鈥檚 a silver lining to 2021鈥檚 disastrous weather, it鈥檚 that more Cascadians appear to be ready for action. If decades can be lost one year at a time, civil rights activism and other social movements have shown that they can also be won with relentless action, one year after another, driving change.
Angus Duncan, a Portland-based climate policy consultant and former chair of the Oregon Global Warming Commission, prefaced his action shortlist saying that there are 鈥渋nnumerable actions, large and small, that should be taken immediately or sooner.鈥� Actions that he says are 鈥減ractical, economic and achievable鈥� with 鈥渙nly politics and inertia in the way.鈥�
After consulting with Duncan and several dozen business and labor leaders, experts, activists and government officials, we have chosen 25.
25 climate actions needed in 2022
BIG PICTURE
1) Governments can treat climate change as a crisis by staffing up and accelerating rulemaking to implement new laws and policies ASAP, as with Washington鈥檚 speedy 18-month rollout of its .
2) Agencies and utilities can factor the cost of climate inaction into all regulatory and investment decisions by adding a for any resulting carbon emissions. For long term planning in British Columbia they can add a higher cost: the C$170/ton fee for carbon emissions anticipated in 2030.
3) Governments can acknowledge through executive orders, resolutions or new statutes that climate change threatens constitutionally protected rights to life, liberty, property and equality, thus bolstering efforts by environmental litigants to .
4) Oregon鈥檚 Department of Environmental Quality can , matching the scale and pace of reductions that climate scientists advise. Oregon鈥檚 overall goal is to cut emissions 45% from 1990 levels by 2035.
5) British Columbia鈥檚 Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy can include emissions from all power consumption 鈥� including imports 鈥� in its 2022 greenhouse gas inventory.
6) Washington鈥檚 Legislature can re-pass provisions vetoed by Gov. Jay Inslee this year that would require enhanced consultation with Tribes for energy projects on their traditional territories, recognizing the .
RENEWABLE ENERGY
7) Utilities regulators can require the inclusion of cost-effective solar energy installations on flat , and in utility investment plans.
8) Government siting bodies and public lands agencies can fast-track evaluation of new and expanded transmission lines to from Rocky Mountain states and Alberta.
9) Government leaders, utilities and regulators can help by pushing to complete multistate negotiations for an , organized by California鈥檚 transmission operator, as well as an organized by the Northwest Power Pool, a voluntary association of utilities.
10) Utilities commissions can require blending of hydrogen into natural gas pipelines 鈥� as 鈥� to ease delivery of zero-carbon hydrogen fuel made with renewable electricity to industries and heavy vehicles.
11) Utilities commissions in Washington and Oregon can require gas distributors to cut natural gas use by increasing use of . Capturing and burning methane slashes by 80 times the warming it can cause over the first 20 years after its release into Earth鈥檚 atmosphere. British Columbia requires gas firms to deliver 15% renewable fuel by 2030.
TRANSPORTATION
12) State and provincial transportation agencies can set guidelines for spending infrastructure dollars 鈥� 鈥� that exclude highway expansion, and legislatures can forgo earmarking highway expansion.
13) City and regional governments can adopt to enhance mobility while reducing driving.
14) Washington and Oregon regulators can adopt British Columbia鈥檚 , which mandates 90% clean-car sales by 2030, while boosting efforts to ensure cleaner cars are affordable for all.
15) The states and province can tap federal broadband funding 鈥� and 鈥� to expand access to virtual meetings and classes, cut driving, and boost rural economies.
16) City and regional governments can stem growing carbon pollution from aviation by and publicly tracking aviation emissions in local greenhouse gas inventories, including all fuel pumped at airports and extra warming caused by jet contrails.
BUILDINGS
17) Utilities regulators and the Bonneville Power Administration can make all homes and businesses 鈥� including those with gas furnaces 鈥� and Washington and Oregon can end utility incentives to install gas appliances.
18) Governments at all levels can strengthen building codes to instead of gas-burning equipment in all new construction.
19) British Columbia鈥檚 Utilities Commission can exempt households that add heat pumps or electric cars from paying premium rates triggered by higher electricity consumption 鈥� .
20) Washington and British Columbia can end single-family zoning in urban areas, as and , to create denser communities with more housing that are less car-dependent.
21) Legislators can change forestry codes to promote thinning and less frequent harvests, thus .
FOSSIL FUEL CONTROLS
22) More local governments can such as refineries and liquefied natural gas plants.
23) Politicians and parties can swear off money from oil, gas and coal companies, lobbyists, and executives, reducing their and .
24) The state attorneys general and provincial solicitor general can launch or expand legal challenges against fossil fuel companies for actions they have taken to cause the climate crisis and to prevent timely climate action.
25) The British Columbia government can end in the province鈥檚 northeast, Cascadia鈥檚 hotspot for fossil fuel extraction.
SOURCES: InvestigateWest analysis, with input from experts, activists and officials, including Andrea Rodgers, Angus Duncan, Anna Lising, Blake Shaffer, Dan Woynillowicz, Deric Gruen, Diane Brandt, Doug Smith, Eileen V. Quigley, Gregg Small, Jay Inslee, John Horgan, Josh Jacobs, KC Golden, Kjellen Belcher, Lloyd Lee, Maria Pope, Mark Lenssen, Meredith Connolly, Merran Smith, Nora Apter, Patrick Mazza, Scott Bolton and Spencer Gray. InvestigateWest sought input from others from industry, government, academia, labor and activism who did not respond.
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