That has scientists worried California is headed not only for prolonged drought, but a fire season similar to or worse than the one that devastated the state in 2020.
鈥淲e're seeing these fires become more and more disruptive and produce more and more smoke that more and more people breathe,鈥� says UCLA climate scientist . 鈥淚t's not the only reason why this matters. But I think it's definitely something to be thinking about, as we head into what could be another dry year in California.鈥�
Swain says a dry ridge of pressure is pushing storms north of the state. In large part it鈥檚 brought on by La Ni帽a, a weather pattern that often results in dry, cold winters. If La Ni帽a doesn鈥檛 weaken and storms don鈥檛 drench the state this winter, Swain says California will likely be entering a within a decade of the last one. And he says droughts lead to water scarcity and very active wildfire seasons.
鈥淎 lot of California already qualifies as being in a severe drought based on what happened with the dry winter last year, then the very hot summer and autumn, which really dried out the landscape even more,鈥� he said. 鈥淣ow, we're having another dry winter.鈥�
In the midst of everything else going on, I wish I had some better weather news for CA. Unfortunately, it appears that the entire state has once again entered a prolonged dry/warm period in the middle of the traditional rainy season. *Very* dry conditions next 2+ weeks.(1/3)
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West)
He says dry weather is normal for Southern California during the winter, but not so much for the rest of the state.
鈥淭o have it sort of be the dominant weather anywhere in California this time of year is unusual,鈥� he said.
California isn鈥檛 alone in experiencing drought or the scarcity of water or wildfires that follow it. East of the state, both the Great Basin and the Colorado River Basin are experiencing the worst drought on record.
鈥淲hich is saying a lot鈥� according to Swain, because the last multi-year drought was extremely severe in those regions.
At the moment, the Sierra Nevada snowpack is at about of average for this time of year, but with little precipitation in the forecast anywhere in California, Swain expects it to start a downward trend. That鈥檚 because the forecast isn鈥檛 just supposed to be dry. He says Northern California could witness 70 degree days in the coming weeks.
Unfortunately, there's little evidence of any kind of wetter pattern change on the horizon. Sub-seasonal outlooks over the next 3-6 weeks--into mid-Feb--suggest a high likelihood of drier than average conditions across CA (esp. central/south). (3/3)
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West)
鈥淥ver the next two to three weeks it will likely fall much farther behind,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 wouldn't be surprised to see a snowpack heading into the end of January, that was only around a third of average.鈥�
To make any real dent in the meager water year will take storm after storm of heavy rain and snow in the Sierra Nevada, says , a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Sacramento office.
鈥淲e really need something more like four, five, or six inches of precipitation over the mountains to really push the needle,鈥� he said.
But both scientists say there鈥檚 a glimmer of hope: It鈥檚 still unknown how much precipitation the second half of winter will bring. At this point a miracle March or marvelous May are unlikely, but would be welcomed.
鈥淲hat we'd like to have 鈥� are ,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey can drop five to 10 inches of rain over the mountains in just a few days, and we haven't had a lot of those systems come in this year.鈥�
A ridge looks to build over the area next week leading to predominantly dry conditions for the second week of January.
— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento)
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