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As a first generation student of color, JP Flores credits much of his academic success to his ability to attend Occidental College, a small, private college in Southern California with what he describes as an inclusive culture.

鈥淚t changed my perspective on the world and changed the trajectory of my life,鈥� said Flores, who is now pursuing a Ph.D. in bioinformatics & computational biology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

That trajectory might have been different, Flores said, if Occidental had been barred from using affirmative action in admissions 鈥� a situation that could become reality this summer if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against the practice in .

Anxiety about the ruling is mounting at the state鈥檚 private colleges, which until now have not been subject to a California law prohibiting public universities from considering race, sex and ethnicity in admissions and hiring. Administrators at those colleges are turning to alternative policies that could help boost diverse enrollment, while student activists are trying to increase awareness on their campuses about the possible impact of an affirmative action ban.

The Supreme Court is expected to rule in June on two lawsuits filed by Students for Fair Admissions 鈥� a non-profit group led by conservative legal strategist Edward Blum 鈥� after hearing arguments in the cases in October. One suit argues that Harvard University鈥檚 admission policy discriminates against Asian American applicants, while the other asserts that The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill discriminates against Asian American and white applicants.

Although it is unclear how limited or expansive the ruling might be, many university leaders and student activists are bracing for an outright ban on affirmative action on all campuses, given the court鈥檚 conservative majority.

Flores said he worries especially about the impact on diversity in the STEM professions. He founded a podcast 鈥溾�� in 2021, where he interviews scientists from diverse backgrounds about their experiences in the field, and helps recruit and retain underrepresented minority students to STEM programs. If private universities are banned from using affirmative action, he fears, it will 鈥渙nly bring one perspective to the forefront.鈥�

鈥淚 think people in science are really starting to realize that in order to solve biological problems like cancer, Alzheimer鈥檚, or different diseases, it takes an interdisciplinary approach,鈥� Flores said. 鈥淧eople really underestimate the power of having a diverse scientific workforce behind these problems.鈥�

Universities bracing for impact

Some California private universities have flagged that an affirmative action ban could constrain their ability to review applications holistically 鈥� taking into account all aspects of an applicant鈥檚 identity, including experiences, attributes and academic metrics.

A holistic admissions process is essential to creating a student body that equips 鈥渟tudents to become the citizens of the world (needed) to meet the greatest needs of our society,鈥� said Eva Blanco Masias, the vice president of enrollment at Santa Clara University.

And race is often deeply embedded in a student鈥檚 application, said Masias 鈥� not just in the demographic information, but also in their essays. Students often write about life experiences, where race can play a factor, she said.

While it鈥檚 impossible to predict the court鈥檚 ruling, 鈥渢here might be some limitations put on institutions鈥� ability to consider race (and) ethnicity as one of many, many factors in holistic admissions,鈥� said Julie Park, an associate professor of education at the University of Maryland, College Park.

鈥淪o is that going to be some sort of limitation? Is that going to be an outright ban? We don鈥檛 really know,鈥� said Park, who has studied race and admissions for nearly two decades and served as a consulting expert for Harvard on the SFFA case until 2018.

Another concern is that students from underrepresented backgrounds, aware of the ban, might opt out of applying to private colleges, said Kristen Soares, president of the Association of Independent California Colleges and Universities, a trade group of more than 80 colleges.

鈥淧eople know about this decision being debated right now in the highest court of law in the nation,鈥� she said. Private colleges, she said, are 鈥渞eally worried鈥� that families might interpret a potential affirmative action ban as a message: 鈥淵ou鈥檙e not welcome at these institutions.鈥�

Flores, who now mentors high school students and serves as an alumni interviewer for prospective Occidental College students, echoed that concern. 鈥淎 lot of students from underrepresented backgrounds, they are so scared to just even apply because they feel they鈥檙e not qualified.鈥�

And that can have a ripple effect on diversity among graduate students, he said: 鈥淎 big part of getting underrepresented students to get their Ph.Ds or MDs or even a master鈥檚 degree is to make sure they can actually get to undergrad.鈥�

Motivated in part by the Supreme Court cases, the association this year launched the California Private College is Possible Alliance, a joint outreach effort that works with high school and community college counselors to break down barriers that might prevent low-income students and students of color from pursuing private education.

The alliance has created a where counselors can find information about private colleges throughout the state, including their application process, available financial aid and unique programs they offer. It plans to host college fairs across the state for high school and community college students.

鈥淲e want to be loud and clear that they should not (opt themselves out),鈥� said Masias, whose university is participating. 鈥淪till be intentional and strive for your educational aspirations. We鈥檙e still here. We still welcome you. Please apply.鈥�

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The UC example

However, Zachary Bleemer, a Yale economics professor who studied the impact of affirmative action at the University of California before California鈥檚 Proposition 209 made it illegal in 1996, notes that these initiatives might not be as effective as affirmative action.

He compared affirmative action to two alternative UC policies to increase representation of underrepresented minorities, a category that includes Black, Hispanic, and Native American students.

Bleemer studied the admissions cycles between 1994 and 2021 and found that both alternatives 鈥� guaranteeing UC acceptance to the of California students and holistic application review 鈥� had a than race-based affirmative action. While affirmative action increased underrepresented minority enrollment by over 20%, the UC鈥檚 top percent policies increased it by less than 4% and holistic review by about 7%, he found.

鈥淒espite the fact that universities are going to go out of their way to try to implement replacement policies for race-based affirmative action to maintain diversity on campus, nevertheless, diversity is going to fall, Black and Hispanic enrollment and expectation is going to fall, at selective private universities,鈥� Bleemer predicted.

At UC Berkeley and UCLA, the two most competitive campuses in the UC system, underrepresented significantly after Proposition 209, plunging by

Although underrepresented minority enrollment on those campuses has increased during the past 30 years, it does not reflect those groups鈥� share of California high school graduates, and Black student enrollment still has not returned to pre-Prop 209 levels.

The ban led to a cascade effect, Bleemer said, where Black and Latino students fell down the ladder of selectivity within UC and it ultimately pushed some students who were at the bottom completely out of higher education.

鈥淜ids who had previously gone to Berkeley, the affirmative action ban goes into place, now they go to Davis. Kids who were previously going to Davis now go to Riverside, etc,鈥� Bleemer said. 鈥淪o you see this sort of shift of the full distribution of Black and Hispanic students into somewhat less selective universities.鈥�

UC Berkeley has partially reversed that trend; for the freshman class of 2020, Black and Latino enrollment increased over the previous year and has since.

Olufemi Ogundele, the university鈥檚 dean of undergraduate admissions, said since being hired in 2019, he鈥檚 focused on altering three aspects of the admissions process: student outreach, application evaluation, and messaging.

He and his team worked to ensure that their outreach was tailored to the specific needs of the students and communities they were speaking to. Given how selective UC Berkeley is, he noted that 鈥渋t鈥檚 not just about going out into communities and talking about coming to Berkeley. It鈥檚 much more about going out into communities and talking about college options that they have, and using Berkeley as a template to describe those options for those families.鈥�

He worked to 鈥渉umanize the evaluation process鈥� by requiring admissions counselors to have 鈥渓ocal expertise on the environments that they were reading from.鈥�

鈥淭his has been allowing diverse versions of excellence to emerge in our evaluation process, which has been incredibly helpful, especially when we start thinking about geographic range, which we鈥檝e been trying to really capture, as we are a public flagship trying to represent the entire state, and not just pieces of it,鈥� Ogundele said.

Ogundele also stressed the importance of ensuring that every admitted student understands their value to the university.

鈥淲e changed our messaging from 鈥榊ou鈥檙e so lucky to be here鈥� to 鈥榃e are lucky to have you,鈥� 鈥� he said.

Based on UC鈥檚 experience, Bleemer predicted that a nationwide affirmative action ban would cause declines in Black and Latino enrollment at California鈥檚 highly selective private colleges such as Stanford University and the University of Southern California. The effect could be muted, however, if there鈥檚 less student awareness about the Supreme Court鈥檚 decision than there was about Proposition 209 in the 1990s, he said. And part of the decline at UC was driven by the fact that students had other high-quality options, including private schools across the country and public schools outside of California, where affirmative action was still in effect. A nationwide affirmative action ban would change that picture, he said.

Concern at Stanford

Much of the concern at California鈥檚 private universities has revolved around diversity within STEM fields.

Stanford University in support of Harvard last November. As one of the nation鈥檚 most selective colleges, with a roughly 4, the university argued that an affirmative action ban would particularly negatively impact its programs in STEM, 鈥渨hich has historically been marked by greater limitations in diversity than most fields of study.鈥�

Stanford student Phong Nguyen is part of the , a student-led initiative that works to increase representation of Southeast Asian students on campus, including those from Hmong, Lao, Khmer, and Tibetan communities. The initiative has led protests, coordinated high school outreach programs and to disaggregate its admissions data so that these Asian communities can be recognized as underrepresented.

During his time on campus, Nguyen 鈥� a first generation and Asian American student 鈥� has joined the Asian American Theater club on campus and spent time in Okada House, Stanford鈥檚 Asian American cultural-themed dorm.

He said he worries that an affirmative action ban could decrease diversity in the student body and negatively impact race-based student groups that make him feel more at home at a predominantly white and wealthy institution like Stanford.

鈥淎 huge part of what has made my experience at Stanford University so enjoyable are those cultures that I鈥檝e been exposed to,鈥� Nguyen said. 鈥淭here is some sort of beauty in the phrase 鈥楨veryone is going to a different Stanford鈥� and I think the Stanford I鈥檓 going to is quite beautiful now and I don鈥檛 want that to change.鈥�

Nguyen has partnered with Asian Americans Advancing Justice, a national nonprofit legal aid and civil rights organization, to spread awareness about a possible affirmative action ban through tabling on campus and leading a teach-in alongside Stanford ethnic studies professors. The teach-in focused on the history of affirmative action and how an end to the admissions policy could impact discussions and learning in ethnic studies courses.

The Stanford College Republicans, on the other hand, would view a Supreme Court ruling against affirmative action as a win, said their president, Seamus Callaghan.

Affirmative action seeks 鈥渢o draw out racial divisions within our country,鈥� Callaghan said in a statement to CalMatters.

鈥淎ll American communities, regardless of racial makeup, deserve to prosper, but affirmative action in hiring and admissions has done little to advance this cause,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t does nothing to address the underlying causes of continued racial disparities, such as differences in grade school quality, the epidemic of fatherlessness, or a culture of grievance that suppresses wealth creation.鈥�

Impact of a ban

Park, the University of Maryland education professor, said that despite some students鈥� fears, a Supreme Court ruling is unlikely to impact race-based student groups or scholarships. But some universities, she said, might 鈥渙verread鈥� the decision, and impose restrictions beyond the scope of the ruling. This is already starting to happen in places where race-conscious admissions are still legal, Park said.

鈥淲e鈥檝e seen for instance, institutions have made sort of shifts in things like scholarship programs or other initiatives. Scholarships that used to be explicitly for, say, BIPOC students are now kind of diversity scholarships that white students can receive,鈥� Park said. 鈥淪ome of these steps have been done even while race conscious admissions is still the law of the land.鈥�

Ogundele described affirmative action as a 鈥渘ecessary band-aid solution that our profession has used,鈥� and its potential loss as an opportunity for universities to look deeper at how to solve educational disparities.

鈥淚f the results from the Supreme Court case come back in a way that does create a national ban on the ability to use race, I think it would be a real gut check moment for many institutions to understand, well, what is your true commitment to diversity and to equity?鈥� he said.

A particularly challenging part of his job, he said, has been increasing Black students鈥� application and enrollment numbers at Berkeley.

鈥淲hen we take a look at all of these institutions across all nine of the states that have similar bans like Prop 209, it is Black people for the most part are the most impacted by these types of bans,鈥� Ogundele said. 鈥淪o that鈥檚 my greatest fear 鈥� is what does this mean for Black enrollment at highly selective and highly resourced institutions?鈥�

Luna is a fellow with the , a collaboration between CalMatters and student journalists from across California. This story and other higher education coverage are supported by the College Futures Foundation.

 is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.