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In 2017, barely a half-year into his tenure as chancellor of the country鈥檚 largest system of higher education, Eloy Ortiz Oakley threw down the gauntlet. Under his leadership, the California Community Colleges unveiled a goals dubbed the Vision for Success.

If met, the achievements would catapult California鈥檚 moribund community college system to new heights, leading to thousands more students annually earning degrees, certificates and transferring to universities.

The deadline to meet most of those goals came and went last month.

The verdict? The system has virtually no shot of reaching its most audacious academic goals of among its Black, Latino and white students in five years. Nor is the system on track to narrow the graduation-rate gaps across regions, such as between the Bay Area and the poorer Inland Empire.

While the number of students graduating after three years has inched upward for all regions 鈥� and almost all demographic groups 鈥� the regions and groups that were already completing degrees and certificates at higher levels have continued to grow their rates. With even progress across the board, the groups already behind can鈥檛 catch up unless community colleges graduate them at faster rates. For this reason, it鈥檚 unlikely that the graduation rates will narrow to remove the so-called 鈥渆quity gap鈥� among regions and demographic groups.

The goals were 鈥渋mprobable,鈥� but not impossible, Oakley told CalMatters, who retired as the system鈥檚 chancellor this summer and . (The group supports CalMatters financially but has no influence over the newsroom鈥檚 coverage).

Still, 鈥淚 think the first five years of Vision for Success goals certainly, you can point to the fact that we鈥檙e not going to close it to 40%,鈥� Oakley said.

Even less likely? Gov. Gavin Newsom鈥檚 more aspirational goals. In a 鈥渞oadmap鈥� published this year that鈥檚 guiding his administration鈥檚 funding priorities for community colleges, Newsom expects the system to 鈥� along racial, ethnic and economic lines as well as between students with and without disabilities.

鈥淲e鈥檙e not going to close the equity gaps,鈥� said Pamela Haynes, president of the Board of Governors, the body that oversees the central office of California鈥檚 community college system. At least not by 2026.

鈥淚鈥檓 Black, I鈥檓 female, and I went through a community college and I went through a UC system 鈥� it took me 14 years to do it,鈥� Haynes said in an interview. 鈥淚 stopped out to have children, I stopped out for a number of reasons, so I know what it takes to go to school.鈥�

Competing ways of counting graduation rates

But even if the system could reach those equity-gap goals, the formula to measure student graduation rates changed last year. That means the California Community Colleges are knowingly using an outdated, less accurate way of tracking data as a way of assessing its progress.

Data under the new way of calculating how many students are graduating after three years is dispiriting.

Under the Vision for Success approach, the rates ranged from 18% for Latino students to 40% for Asian students among those .

But under the updated approach, the three-year graduation rates ranged from 7% to 16%, depending on the demographic group.

The new way is arguably more accurate and fairer, because it captures a larger slice of students who enroll at California鈥檚 community colleges. The previous approach excluded thousands of students who didn鈥檛 take at least the equivalent of two courses in their first three years of school and attempted a math and English course 鈥� resulting in an artificially high graduation rate.

Now, the system鈥檚 graduation rate is based on any student who attempted a course.

As a consequence, the Chancellor鈥檚鈥� Office of the California Community Colleges is publishing two widely divergent graduation rates, but is using the outdated method with the higher numbers 鈥� the one published in the Vision for Success 鈥� as its accountability metric.

Moreover, the public has limited insight into how colleges are doing according to that metric used in the Vision for Success. Unlike the newer way of calculating graduation rates, which allows the public to compare graduation rates of different colleges and regions , no such public dashboard exists for the Vision for Success accountability data.

The system says it can鈥檛 do much about that, though. Its central office has been understaffed, said Haynes, and doesn鈥檛 have the bandwidth to build another data dashboard, especially one based on a graduation rate methodology that is likely on its way out.

鈥淲e will get a new system that鈥檚 going to be better, but where you change it in the process is critically important,鈥� Haynes said.

With two more 鈥渃ohorts鈥� 鈥� or incoming groups of students to track 鈥� the system is beholden to the outdated Vision for Success calculations until the students who started in fall 2020 finish within three years. In other words, the public won鈥檛 know how close the system came to reaching its equity-gap goals, set in 2017 and looking ahead to 2022, until that final data is published in spring 2024. Oakley, the chancellor who set the goals together with the board, will have been gone for two years.
The community college system need not wait that long to know how well it鈥檚 doing, said Davis Jenkins, a scholar on community colleges at the Columbia University-affiliated Community College Research Center.

Jenkins and his scholarly peers are , a cluster of indicators about how much a student accomplishes in the first year of studies, such as taking several courses aligned with one鈥檚 major and completing math and English courses needed to transfer to a public university. Some research says this early momentum data can predict whether that student ultimately graduates with a degree or certificate.

For many students, there鈥檚 no momentum. About 30% of new community college students don鈥檛 come back for a second term of study. Long before the COVID-19 pandemic led to a , California鈥檚 community colleges roughly 100,000 enrolled students annually, a . Compelling those students to stay with improved academic offerings and more financial aid can further boost the system鈥檚 completion goals.

So can degrees and credentials of economic value.

Jenkins points to data his colleague compiled showing many California community college degrees and certificates lead to unimpressive wages. Jenkins wants to see graduation rates not just of any credential, but of degrees and certificates of economic value or that are transferable to a Cal State or UC. He was particularly incredulous of the 53,000 long-term liberal arts certificates California Community Colleges awarded to students in 2019-20 鈥� about , according to federal data.

鈥淲hat the hell is that?鈥� he asked. 鈥淣o one knows. I鈥檝e been in the business for 40 years.鈥�

Why community college data is so tricky

The topsy-turvey nature of community college data is no accident. While so-called four-year colleges and universities principally issue only one kind of undergraduate certificate of completion, the bachelor鈥檚 degree, community colleges serve multiple purposes that don鈥檛 always overlap.

Some students attend community colleges to earn enough credits to transfer to a university en route to a bachelor鈥檚. Others are in it for just an associate degree or a shorter-term certificate. Still others enroll in community colleges to take one class without plans to pursue a credential.

That makes community college students far more varied than those enrolled at the University of California, Cal State University or private colleges. It also means capturing the progress of community college students 鈥� who are much more likely to work and come from poorer families 鈥� is far more challenging than simply determining how many students earned a bachelor鈥檚 in four or six years.

But California鈥檚 community colleges needed accountability, Oakley and Haynes said. While imperfect, the Vision for Success was the first time the chancellor鈥檚 office articulated a clear set of goals 鈥� 鈥渁 way to hold up a mirror to the system,鈥� Oakley said.

Setting system wide accountability goals for the California Community Colleges is unusual. Unlike the centralized University of California and California State University, the community college system is more of a confederation. Its 115 physical community colleges are largely governed locally by publicly elected trustees from 72 districts 鈥� not unlike K-12 school boards. Accountability for the community colleges occurred locally, not system wide, Oakley said.

Whether individual colleges share in the Vision鈥檚 excitement depends on whom one asks, said Larry Galizio, president of the group that represents local community college presidents and trustees, the Community College League of California. He said some college leaders view the Vision document as 鈥渆ncroaching鈥� and dictating what campuses have to do.

鈥淭he structure of the system is such that there鈥檚 always going to be a tension between the statewide perspective and the locals,鈥� Galizio said, who cited .

New, harder goals

Haynes and Oakley are optimistic new laws will lead to a narrowing of the gaps in graduation rates over time. Those include a new requirement that colleges required to transfer to a Cal State or UC.

Last year the Legislature and Newsom approved an expansion of the Cal Grant, the state鈥檚 main financial aid tool, to reach another . More students may also receive the grant in two years .

Between the governor鈥檚 call for closing equity gaps and other aspirations to improve the academic results at the system, California鈥檚 community colleges have their work cut out for them.

鈥淭he bar has moved higher,鈥� said Interim Chancellor Daisy Gonzales . 鈥淲e thought we had goals; the governor is asking us to do more.鈥�

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