President Donald Trump鈥檚 back and forth on tariffs is escalating tensions between the U.S. and two of , Canada and Mexico.
In 2024, Oregon imported $3.8 billion worth of goods and parts from Canada, and exported $3.3 billion, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau鈥檚 Foreign Trade Division, accessed through wisertrade.org.
The same year, the state imported just $840 million from Mexico. However, at $6.3 billion worth of goods, materials and resources, Oregon exported more to Mexico than to any other country.
The Trump administration argues tariffs will increase domestic manufacturing, raise government revenue, lower consumer prices and spur economic development in the country. while inviting retaliation from global trading partners.
鈥淲e鈥檙e hearing a lot of rumors of what may be coming down the pike,鈥� John Murphy, international trade expert with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, told OPB on a recent trip to Portland. 鈥淏ut if you鈥檙e a business executive, you鈥檙e there in the C-suite, you鈥檙e trying to decide if you鈥檙e going to go ahead and hire dozens of new workers, or maybe you鈥檙e going to put a new plant in this state or that state. This kind of environment is not conducive to that.鈥�
Instead, Murphy said businesses will likely pull back on investments until uncertainty dies down. He said that pause could have a 鈥渃hilling effect on the economy.鈥�
This week, President Trump鈥檚 import tax targets are steel and aluminum, both used in Oregon industries ranging from semiconductors to craft brewing. Federal trade numbers show Oregon imported more than $300 million worth of steel, iron and aluminum last year, mostly .
鈥淐ertainly when you鈥檙e talking about tariffs as high as 25% or higher,鈥� Murphy said, 鈥渢hat can be a game changer for American companies that are trying to sell their products overseas or that are trying to source inputs and materials that they just can鈥檛 get domestically.鈥�
Although Trump has threatened a on all global trading partners, Murphy said he鈥檚 especially watching how things play out between the U.S. and its North American neighbors.
The absence of trade barriers with Canada and Mexico has helped spur the development of manufacturing facilities across the continent. Murphy points to things like cars: over the last few decades auto manufacturers have gotten used to sending parts between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico multiple times while building one car.
It would take years, not months, to dismantle and rebuild that type of supply chain.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really important in the eyes of the business community to back off of these tariff threats on Canada and Mexico,鈥� Murphy said.