It's hard to overstate the impact COVID-19 restrictions have had on the hospitality industry. A survey by the National Restaurant Association found about 80% of Oregon鈥檚 restaurant workers have lost their jobs. And while when they鈥檙e again allowed to seat patrons, a growing number have decided to permanently close their doors.
Downtown Portland鈥檚 Clyde Common, which won accolades for its cocktails before the pandemic closed its doors, is among those that will not be back. Co-owner Nate Tilden said after he did the math, a return to the old way of business just did not add up.
鈥淩estaurants run on very tight margins. If you鈥檙e running at 7% or up to 10%, then you鈥檙e doing pretty well. And it really came down to the simplicity that we鈥檙e not going to have the number of customers walking through our door that we used to have 鈥� our government鈥檚 not going to allow that,鈥�
鈥淲hen we get the green light to reopen, if we brought back the entire staff and we tried to function in that full-capacity way, then we鈥檒l be done in three weeks, done and bankrupt, meaning our bank accounts will be at zero and I鈥檒l have a ton of debt,鈥� he said.
The considerations at Propserity Pie Shoppe in Portland鈥檚 Multnomah Village were different 鈥� but the conclusion co-owner Amy Jaffe drew was the same.
The business had already suffered two economic hits over the past year 鈥� an oven fire in spring 2019 forced a monthlong closure, then road construction limited access to neighborhood businesses a few months later.
鈥淲e began to recover in the wintertime and going into 2020 鈥� and then this hit,鈥� Jaffe said.
Much as people with pre-existing health conditions have fared worse when infected with the coronavirus, the pre-existing financial struggles that Prosperity Pie was facing made COVID-19 closures more than the business could overcome.
鈥淲hen COVID hit us, we had to come to the answer that we need to close permanently,鈥� Jaffe said. 鈥淚t was really hard, and we miss our community so much.鈥�
Yet Tilden, who co-owns several other restaurants in Portland, said he believes there are some food-service models that could potentially thrive in the post-pandemic era.
He is also an owner of Olympia Provisions, a charcuterie and meat-focused restaurant with multiple locations across Portland, which also operates as a supplier to supermarkets. He said he expects at least some of that local chain鈥檚 smaller-format eateries to return when they鈥檙e allowed.
鈥淭he bigger the restaurant, the bigger the challenge, and it really comes down to real estate,鈥� Tilden said.
Clyde Common operated across two floors and required high staffing levels so servers could see and attend to all tables, he said.
Although the Clyde Common that customers once loved will not return, he said he hopes to remodel the space to allow for the creation of a market and a smaller tavern-style restaurant.
鈥淎 restaurant like Olympia Provisions Southeast, I think we could run with one or two cooks and one or two people taking orders 鈥� so four people on staff. That鈥檚 an overhead of, let鈥檚 say, generally $500 to $600 in labor per shift,鈥� Tilden estimated. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e running a labor cost of 30%, can we bring in $1,500 in gross sales at OP Southeast to make that business break even? My feeling is, yes we can.鈥�
Tilden noted that overhead is much more than just payroll 鈥� 鈥渞ent, utilities bills, insurance services, garbage, linen鈥� and more. And with those extra costs, he expects Olympia Provisions restaurant locations will break even, at best.
鈥淲e鈥檙e not gonna be profitable for a long time,鈥� he said.
It鈥檚 a brutal calculus for the thousands of restaurant workers seeking unemployment benefits now, and wondering what the future will bring.
Erika Goldin-Jones has worked in food service for about 15 years, most recently managing the wine program at Clyde Common. She said she understands the financial reasons that her job is not likely to return 鈥� but she does not know what that will mean for the rest of her career, or if she鈥檒l even be able to continue in the field.
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard knowing that we鈥檙e no longer going to exist in the same way. It kind of feels like the era of the bustling restaurant is ending 鈥� but I don鈥檛 know if that鈥檚 really true. I don鈥檛 think anyone really knows,鈥� Goldin-Jones said.
鈥淭he rhetoric right now is of this 鈥榩andemic pivot鈥� that we鈥檙e all supposed to be navigating, and whether that means we should be shifting our goals and our ideas of what the future is,鈥� she said. 鈥淏ut, I mean, I can say that I can鈥檛 really see myself doing anything else right now. I really love the industry, and I鈥檓 just gonna have to see what happens.鈥�
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