Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey will face off in November for California鈥檚 highly coveted U.S. Senate seat.
The race is a once-in-decades opportunity to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (and succeed caretaker Sen. Laphonza Butler). The winner in November 鈥� and Schiff starts with a big edge 鈥� could hold onto the seat for decades to come.
With 44% of the estimated vote counted, Schiff had 35% and Garvey had 31%, while Democratic Rep. Katie Porter trailed with 14% and Rep. Barbara Lee had 7%. The AP declared Schiff the winner of one ticket out of the primary, and then Garvey for the second.
In the separate election to serve out the final two months of Feinstein鈥檚 term, in early returns.
The result largely came down to the impact of former President Donald Trump, voter turnout and campaign cash.
The race is already in state history. Schiff, a Burbank U.S. representative who has consistently led in polling, has spent a whopping $38 million ahead of the primary, outspending all his opponents combined and nationwide.
Schiff鈥檚 tremendous fundraising edge made the race essentially a competition for second place for other candidates.
In recent months, that has been a fight between progressive Democratic firebrand Porter and Garvey, a former L.A. Dodgers star who jumped into the race in October and appears to be consolidating Republican voters. Lee, an Oakland Democrat known for her lone vote against the Afghanistan War in Congress and for her call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, has lagged in fundraising and polling.
But a projected 鈥渉istorically low鈥� turnout, especially among young voters, boosted Garvey鈥檚 chances and hurt Porter鈥檚 odds, according to a released last week. A third of likely voters in the primary are Republican, the poll said.
As of Tuesday, more than 2.2 million voters older than 65 had cast their ballots, versus about 347,000 voters aged 18 to 34, , which tracks early ballot return data.
A tale of two races
No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006. And for months, the Senate race was almost strictly a Democratic affair.
鈥� ranked in that order 鈥� dominated the polls early on, as experts predicted a Democrat-on-Democrat faceoff in November.
Then entered Garvey.
He surged in polls in recent months, running almost entirely on name recognition. That was enough to get him on the stage with the three Democrats for three statewide televised debates.
The campaign has touted Garvey鈥檚 homelessness tours in several big cities, as well as his trips to the southern border and the Salton Sea, but he has proposed few specific policies. Garvey, who has voted for Trump twice, has also declined to say how he will vote in this presidential election.
But he did not need to do that to advance to the general election, some political strategists say.
鈥淚t鈥檚 almost like he鈥檚 in a completely different sport,鈥� Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data. 鈥淎ll he has to do is continue to be the Republican that gets talked about in the race.鈥�
The Democrats, however, needed to stand out. Lee, Porter and Schiff 鈥� having largely identical voting records 鈥� all fought to distinguish themselves from one another and to reach different groups of voters. They have touted different policy positions and released detailed plans ahead of the primary.
鈥淭he contest for the Democrats is to appeal to as many voters as possible,鈥� Mitchell said.
Lee, who is in a distant fourth place in recent polls, has touted her progressive record and often diverged from Schiff and Porter in foreign policies. She has consistently advocated for a cut to the defense budget and led on issues such as decriminalizing marijuana, impeaching Trump and repealing the post-Sept. 11 terrorist attack war authorization.
Porter, who is well-known for her use of whiteboards in congressional hearings to grill witnesses, portrayed herself as a crusader against corporate interests, rejecting corporate PAC contributions for years. She vowed to 鈥渟hake up the Senate鈥� and has declined to request earmark funding 鈥� a process through which members of Congress request for federal dollars for their own districts.
And Schiff, who used to be a member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, has rebranded himself as a progressive and . Unlike Porter and Lee, he refuses to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. He was also the only one to support last year to avoid a default.
The Trump factor
Another reason Garvey hasn鈥檛 had to do much campaigning: Schiff did it for him.
Schiff鈥檚 campaign has shelled out tens of millions of dollars on TV ads that portrayed the race as a showdown between him and Garvey, boosting the Republican鈥檚 profile along the way. Schiff has aired ads on Fox News and sent out mailers to Republican voters, deeming Garvey 鈥�.鈥�
While Trump has not weighed in on the race, his name is frequently invoked in Schiff鈥檚 ads as Schiff tries to tie Garvey to the former president and the Make America Great Again movement. At a San Diego event on Sunday, Schiff said Garvey is 鈥溾��
Schiff has fundraised off Trump鈥檚 post on the former president鈥檚 social media platform calling him 鈥淪limeball Adam 鈥楽hifty鈥� Schiff,鈥� touting his role leading the first impeachment trial against Trump in 2020.
鈥淗e has really, really capitalized on being the most anti-Trump guy in the race,鈥� said Jon Fleischman, longtime Republican strategist and former executive director of the California Republican Party.
鈥淚f you ask anybody: 鈥榃hat鈥檚 the number one thing you know about Adam Schiff?鈥� He took on Donald Trump.鈥�
Porter, who has criticized Schiff for using the tactic to box her out of the primary for an easier win in November, tried to take Republican votes away from Garvey by airing ads boosting Eric Early, a GOP attorney who has lagged in polling. Her ads portray Early as the Republican who 鈥溾��
Schiff鈥檚 cash advantage
Schiff, who entered the new year with $35 million on hand, was able to spend freely on Garvey鈥檚 behalf.
Porter missed an opportunity to spend her money earlier to keep Schiff鈥檚 cash advantage in check, Mitchell said. Instead, Porter has had to sell her fundraising lists for more cash in the final stretch of the primary, .
鈥淜atie Porter was essentially almost running for the second spot on the ballot from the beginning, and that鈥檚 always a mistake,鈥� Mitchell said.
In 2022, Porter to narrowly fend off a challenge from Republican Scott Baugh, who is on the ballot again this year for her open congressional seat. If she had not spent that much, the cash she could have carried over to her Senate run would have benefited her significantly, Fleischman said.
鈥淭he entire complexion of the U.S. Senate race would have been different,鈥� he said.
Turnout may be key in results
The low voter turnout so far also counted against Porter鈥檚 chances.
Mitchell projected a 30% voter turnout for today鈥檚 primary, which he said is significantly lower than the average 47% turnout in presidential primaries but not surprising, considering the rematch appears set between President Joe Biden and Trump.
鈥淚t鈥檚 about young people turning out, really, for Katie Porter,鈥� Mitchell said. 鈥淐ould we see a flood of young people turning out in the end? Sure, and that鈥檚 what she would need.鈥�
Porter said young people are 鈥渄iscouraged鈥� and are turned off by the 鈥渂ig money鈥� in the Senate race. She has blamed the lower turnout so far among Democrats and high turnout among Republicans on Schiff鈥檚 ad blitz elevating Garvey.
As of Monday, 100,000 fewer Democratic ballots, and 160,000 more Republican ballots had been returned compared to the same point in the 2022 primary, .
鈥淭his is the Schiff gift to the Republican Party in California and is a big problem for us in this election, but also down ballot into November,鈥� she after she cast her ballot.
Fleischman agreed. While Schiff鈥檚 boost for Garvey may have elevated his own chance to win in November, it may come at a cost to Democrats as more Republicans will be incentivized to vote in a Schiff-Garvey faceoff, he said.
鈥淕arvey鈥檚 presence on the ticket will be very, very helpful (to Republicans) in all of these very competitive congressional races in California that are going to help choose who controls Congress,鈥� he said.
鈥淲ith nothing competitive statewide, you could see an enthusiasm gap for Democrats.鈥�
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